Welcome!

Cloud Expo Authors: Elizabeth White, Haim Koshchitzky, Richard Moulds, Martin Etmajer, Gary Kaiser

Related Topics: Cloud Expo, SOA & WOA

Cloud Expo: Article

ROI: Justifying the Cloud

You can improve TCO by up to 80% by using applications in a public cloud

A classic use of ROI or its twin TCO is in the Microsoft Economics of the Cloud, Nov 2010 paper. The conclusion is you can improve TCO by up to 80% by using applications in public cloud versus on-premise deployment. The basics of the calculation being:

  • improved utilization (10% to 90%) enabled by virtualization/consolidation & elasticity
  • the economies (power, operations, HW purchase etc..) of scale of multi-tenant cloud scale hosting

Given most costs in a DC are directly linked to the amount of infrastructure deployed, then improving utilization from 10% to 90% sounds like the primary justification for the 80% improvement. The misuse of the information is not more evident that when Phil Wainewright writes that the strength of this "research" is enough to put the nail in the coffin of the concept of private cloud. Definitive words indeed.. The problem I have with this conclusion is it is a black & white, monolithic view of "what is cloud". This is combined with TCO/ROI modeling that uses some pretty broad assumptions to underpin the cost model. It is often good marketing or publicity to offer polarized view of the issues, but it does not provide a real-world executable decision making capability (read "value") for future consumer of cloud services (public or private). So why are people needing to kill the concept of the "private cloud"? James Urquhart tweeted it best (4/12/2011):

  • "I don't hear ANYONE who isn't a public cloud provider or SI who bet the farm on public cloud make any claims about "false clouds". Period."
  • "Oh, wait. There may be one or two startups and journalists in there...all of which stand to gain from public cloud. Sorry about that. :\ "

If you take that approach and as a result just build a "cloud" for the sake of "cloud" then you are making "the BIG mistake". Implementing a framework as a product is doomed to fail. If you implemented SOA this way then disaster, ITIL would equal chaos, Prince2 would create inertia, Web2.0 would have resulted in mega-$$$. These concepts, whether they be architectural, process or other are meant to guide execution, not be implemented blindly. So how should ROI be used? So when people ask the question. "What's is the ROI of the cloud?" it is not an issue of "What is an ROI?" or "What is the benefit of Cloud?" or even "What data goes into a ROI calculation?". It is about how to answer the question of why, what and how to adopt the cloud. Most of the Cloud ROI (return-on-investment) or TCO (total cost of ownership) discussions are like the whitepaper from Microsoft. Comparing side by side a complex cloud deployment with a traditional infrastructure deployment. In reality, it's too difficult to develop a model to cater "true total cost of ownership", you quickly have to jump to broad assumptions, and narrow scope to make it manageable. If you start you model as a greenfield cloud deployment, your model has radical inaccuracies as you try apply this to brownfield or legacy enterprises. Try starting based on data of a legacy deployment and you have huge problems dealing with the depreciation of assets. Brownfield models also have the challenge of dealing with the elasticity of the delivery assets or opportunity costs; for example, you can manage 100 or 150 servers with the same team, or your existing 20% utilized asset can possible only support 2X or maybe as much as 10X the workload. You then overlay this with the changing economics of real estate facilities, HVAC, compute. The result is, you end up with a model that can have error factors upward of 100% It's too complex a problem to solve without a huge dataset to validate the variables, dependencies, etc... Armada takes a Fast Track approach to solving the problem. You are looking at cloud as a reference framework to help develop a solution that returns the business value. You calculate ROI based on a specific situation and end-state solution. A ROI needs to have a pay back of less than a year, so long-term theoretical modeling has no significant value. So how do you do it? Remember three things;

  • You must have a triggering event
  • Use scenario analysis and not lifecycle modeling
  • Apply the 80/20 rule to data, and only the stuff that impacts your costs

Triggering Event
Most of the time being a technical architect in consulting creates looks of skepticism from engineers in enterprise customers. Fair enough, when I was in that seat I felt the same way. When I gave up internal politics for politics of "revenue/pipeline", "everyone is a salesperson" and "whitepapers and webinars" a few things became pretty crystal clear. The most important thing is, don't waste time doing anything unless there is a pain point, problem to solve, triggering event. Wants are good, but needs are better. This is important in ROI calculation. The triggering event is the anchor point for the evaluation and defines where you are looking for the biggest "return" in the ROI.. The triggering event can be something specific like;

  • "we will run out of datacenter space in 6 months"
  • "it takes us 6 months to deploy an environment"
  • "we are on CNN if our primary datacenter fails because we have no DR"

Alternatively, it can be softer and described as the business goal, business driver like:

  • "we need to reduce operational management costs"
  • "we need to improve our infrastructure utilization"

These things are scoping statements for the project and then the ROI is applied to the return for this project.

Scenario Analysis
You scope the project, but if you try and calculate the return based on lifecycle costs over a long term, you will be scratching your head forever. If the ROI is not 1-3 years, then you are probably not doing it. Most likely it needs to be in less than a year. Scenario analysis is fairly simple, but a little time consuming. It is, however, a step down the direction of implementation, rather than a detour into developing a business case that will never be used or validated later. You create three (3) scenarios:

  • Business as usual - sometimes this is the "no decision, decision" or just solve the problem the way you have in the past
  • Option 1 - the "go big or go home" scenario, build the pure play cloud solution
  • Option 2 - the "pragmatic solution", or sometimes called the cheap solution. This is often the winner, but generally can be folded into option 1 after a subsequent round of funding.

Gather the requirements. Design the end-state architectures for three options and price out the implementation and on-going costs. You are already starting the design, so when the solution is green lighted, you are ready to go..

80/20 Rule of Data
A basic premise of the Fast Track method is to make decisions based on readily available information. Creating data and model takes time and effort for little return. In the time it takes to do this, IT services are evolving and changing. So in collecting data for a ROI analysis, use what is available, don't over process it and limit yourself to the data that impacts your business. From Gartner and other models we know that the biggest contributors to ROI/TCO are;

  • Hardware Costs (storage, compute, network)
  • Hardware Maintenance/Support
  • Software License (applications licenses, tools licenses etc..)
  • Software Maintenance/Support
  • Management & Operations (people, benefits etc..)
  • Facilities (real estate, hvac, security etc..)
  • Development/Customization/System Integration
  • Opportunity Cost (increase costs in existing infrastructure by reducing its scale)

Focus on capturing this information to support the scope of your project. If your project is not looking for value in reduction of power costs, then don't include it in the model. Just deliver the value you have visbility and control over. You should try and be as complete as possible, without creating an environment of political inertia. So with this approach its easy to capture a return on investment (ROI) calculation. I need to add, that David Linthicum wrote a very relevant post that reinforced that ROI does not make a business case. You need to also include the soft value factors, which for the cloud revolve around agility and time-to-market. Hard to define or place a value, but critical to the final assessment.

More Stories By Brad Vaughan

Brad Vaughan is a twenty year veteran consultant working with companies around the globe to transform technology infrastructure to deliver enhanced business services.

Cloud Expo Breaking News
Cloud computing started a technology revolution; now DevOps is driving that revolution forward. By enabling new approaches to service delivery, cloud and DevOps together are delivering even greater speed, agility, and efficiency. No wonder leading innovators are adopting DevOps and cloud together! In his session at DevOps Summit, Andi Mann, Vice President of Strategic Solutions at CA Technologies, will explore the synergies in these two approaches, with practical tips, techniques, research data, war stories, case studies, and recommendations.
After a couple of false starts, cloud-based desktop solutions are picking up steam, driven by trends such as BYOD and pervasive high-speed connectivity. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Seth Bostock, CEO of IndependenceIT, cuts through the hype and the acronyms, and discusses the emergence of full-featured cloud workspaces that do for the desktop what cloud infrastructure did for the server. He’ll discuss VDI vs DaaS, implementation strategies and evaluation criteria.
Cloud Computing is evolving into a Big Three of Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. Cloud 360: Multi-Cloud Bootcamp, being held Nov 4–5, 2014, in conjunction with 15th Cloud Expo in Santa Clara, CA, delivers a real-world demonstration of how to deploy and configure a scalable and available web application on all three platforms. The Cloud 360 Bootcamp, led by Janakiram MSV, an analyst with Gigaom Research, is the first bootcamp that introduces the core concepts of Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) based on the workings of the Big Three platforms – Amazon EC2, Google Compute Engine, and Azure VMs. Bootcamp attendees will get to see the big picture and also receive the knowledge needed to make the best cloud decisions for their business applications and entire enterprise IT organization.
Scott Jenson leads a project called The Physical Web within the Chrome team at Google. Project members are working to take the scalability and openness of the web and use it to talk to the exponentially exploding range of smart devices. Nearly every company today working on the IoT comes up with the same basic solution: use my server and you'll be fine. But if we really believe there will be trillions of these devices, that just can't scale. We need a system that is open a scalable and by using the URL as a basic building block, we open this up and get the same resilience that the web enjoys.
The Internet of Things is a natural complement to the cloud and related technologies such as Big Data, analytics, and mobility. In his session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, Joe Weinman will lay out four generic strategies – digital disciplines – to exploit emerging digital technologies for strategic advantage. Joe Weinman has held executive leadership positions at Bell Labs, AT&T, Hewlett-Packard, and Telx, in areas such as corporate strategy, business development, product management, operations, and R&D.
SYS-CON Events announced today that DevOps.com has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's “DevOps Summit at Cloud Expo,” which will take place on June 10–12, 2014, at the Javits Center in New York City, New York. DevOps.com is where the world meets DevOps. It is the largest collection of original content relating to DevOps on the web today Featuring up-to-the-minute news, feature stories, blogs, bylined articles and more, DevOps.com is where the thought leaders of the DevOps movement make their ideas known.
There are 182 billion emails sent every day, generating a lot of data about how recipients and ISPs respond. Many marketers take a more-is-better approach to stats, preferring to have the ability to slice and dice their email lists based numerous arbitrary stats. However, fundamentally what really matters is whether or not sending an email to a particular recipient will generate value. Data Scientists can design high-level insights such as engagement prediction models and content clusters that allow marketers to cut through the noise and design their campaigns around strong, predictive signals, rather than arbitrary statistics. SendGrid sends up to half a billion emails a day for customers such as Pinterest and GitHub. All this email adds up to more text than produced in the entire twitterverse. We track events like clicks, opens and deliveries to help improve deliverability for our customers – adding up to over 50 billion useful events every month. While SendGrid data covers only abo...
SYS-CON Events announced today that the Web Host Industry Review has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Since 2000, The Web Host Industry Review has made a name for itself as the foremost authority of the Web hosting industry providing reliable, insightful and comprehensive news, reviews and resources to the hosting community. TheWHIR Blogs provides a community of expert industry perspectives. The Web Host Industry Review Magazine also offers a business-minded, issue-driven perspective of interest to executives and decision-makers. WHIR TV offers on demand web hosting video interviews and web hosting video features of the key persons and events of the web hosting industry. WHIR Events brings together like-minded hosting industry professionals and decision-makers in local communities. TheWHIR is an iNET Interactive property.
SYS-CON Events announced today that O'Reilly Media has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. O'Reilly Media spreads the knowledge of innovators through its books, online services, magazines, and conferences. Since 1978, O'Reilly Media has been a chronicler and catalyst of cutting-edge development, homing in on the technology trends that really matter and spurring their adoption by amplifying "faint signals" from the alpha geeks who are creating the future. An active participant in the technology community, the company has a long history of advocacy, meme-making, and evangelism.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Verizon has been named “Gold Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Verizon Enterprise Solutions creates global connections that generate growth, drive business innovation and move society forward. With industry-specific solutions and a full range of global wholesale offerings provided over the company's secure mobility, cloud, strategic networking and advanced communications platforms, Verizon Enterprise Solutions helps open new opportunities around the world for innovation, investment and business transformation. Visit verizonenterprise.com to learn more.
SYS-CON Events announced today that TMCnet has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Technology Marketing Corporation (TMC) is the world's leading business to business and integrated marketing media company, servicing niche markets within the communications and technology industries.
"In my session I spoke about enterprise cloud analytics and how we can leverage analytics as a service," explained Ajay Budhraja, CTO at the Department of Justice, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at the 14th International Cloud Expo®, held June 10-12, 2014, at the Javits Center in New York City. Cloud Expo® 2014 Silicon Valley, November 4–6, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading Cloud industry players in the world.
“We are starting to see people move beyond the commodity cloud and enterprises need to start focusing on additional value added services in order to really drive their adoption," explained Jason Mondanaro, Director of Product Management at MetraTech, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at the 14th International Cloud Expo®, held June 10-12, 2014, at the Javits Center in New York City. Cloud Expo® 2014 Silicon Valley, November 4–6, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading Cloud industry players in the world.
"We are automated capacity control software, which basically looks at all the supply and demand and running a virtual cloud environment and does a deep analysis of that and says where should things go," explained Andrew Hillier, Co-founder & CTO of CiRBA, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at the 14th International Cloud Expo®, held June 10-12, 2014, at the Javits Center in New York City. Cloud Expo® 2014 Silicon Valley, November 4–6, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading Cloud industry players in the world.
Almost everyone sees the potential of Internet of Things but how can businesses truly unlock that potential. The key will be in the ability to discover business insight in the midst of an ocean of Big Data generated from billions of embedded devices via Systems of Discover. Businesses will also need to ensure that they can sustain that insight by leveraging the cloud for global reach, scale and elasticity. In his session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, Mac Devine, Distinguished Engineer at IBM, will discuss bringing these three elements together via Systems of Discover.