|By Brad Vaughan||
|April 16, 2011 11:45 AM EDT||
A classic use of ROI or its twin TCO is in the Microsoft Economics of the Cloud, Nov 2010 paper. The conclusion is you can improve TCO by up to 80% by using applications in public cloud versus on-premise deployment. The basics of the calculation being:
- improved utilization (10% to 90%) enabled by virtualization/consolidation & elasticity
- the economies (power, operations, HW purchase etc..) of scale of multi-tenant cloud scale hosting
Given most costs in a DC are directly linked to the amount of infrastructure deployed, then improving utilization from 10% to 90% sounds like the primary justification for the 80% improvement. The misuse of the information is not more evident that when Phil Wainewright writes that the strength of this "research" is enough to put the nail in the coffin of the concept of private cloud. Definitive words indeed.. The problem I have with this conclusion is it is a black & white, monolithic view of "what is cloud". This is combined with TCO/ROI modeling that uses some pretty broad assumptions to underpin the cost model. It is often good marketing or publicity to offer polarized view of the issues, but it does not provide a real-world executable decision making capability (read "value") for future consumer of cloud services (public or private). So why are people needing to kill the concept of the "private cloud"? James Urquhart tweeted it best (4/12/2011):
- "I don't hear ANYONE who isn't a public cloud provider or SI who bet the farm on public cloud make any claims about "false clouds". Period."
- "Oh, wait. There may be one or two startups and journalists in there...all of which stand to gain from public cloud. Sorry about that. :\ "
If you take that approach and as a result just build a "cloud" for the sake of "cloud" then you are making "the BIG mistake". Implementing a framework as a product is doomed to fail. If you implemented SOA this way then disaster, ITIL would equal chaos, Prince2 would create inertia, Web2.0 would have resulted in mega-$$$. These concepts, whether they be architectural, process or other are meant to guide execution, not be implemented blindly. So how should ROI be used? So when people ask the question. "What's is the ROI of the cloud?" it is not an issue of "What is an ROI?" or "What is the benefit of Cloud?" or even "What data goes into a ROI calculation?". It is about how to answer the question of why, what and how to adopt the cloud. Most of the Cloud ROI (return-on-investment) or TCO (total cost of ownership) discussions are like the whitepaper from Microsoft. Comparing side by side a complex cloud deployment with a traditional infrastructure deployment. In reality, it's too difficult to develop a model to cater "true total cost of ownership", you quickly have to jump to broad assumptions, and narrow scope to make it manageable. If you start you model as a greenfield cloud deployment, your model has radical inaccuracies as you try apply this to brownfield or legacy enterprises. Try starting based on data of a legacy deployment and you have huge problems dealing with the depreciation of assets. Brownfield models also have the challenge of dealing with the elasticity of the delivery assets or opportunity costs; for example, you can manage 100 or 150 servers with the same team, or your existing 20% utilized asset can possible only support 2X or maybe as much as 10X the workload. You then overlay this with the changing economics of real estate facilities, HVAC, compute. The result is, you end up with a model that can have error factors upward of 100% It's too complex a problem to solve without a huge dataset to validate the variables, dependencies, etc... Armada takes a Fast Track approach to solving the problem. You are looking at cloud as a reference framework to help develop a solution that returns the business value. You calculate ROI based on a specific situation and end-state solution. A ROI needs to have a pay back of less than a year, so long-term theoretical modeling has no significant value. So how do you do it? Remember three things;
- You must have a triggering event
- Use scenario analysis and not lifecycle modeling
- Apply the 80/20 rule to data, and only the stuff that impacts your costs
Most of the time being a technical architect in consulting creates looks of skepticism from engineers in enterprise customers. Fair enough, when I was in that seat I felt the same way. When I gave up internal politics for politics of "revenue/pipeline", "everyone is a salesperson" and "whitepapers and webinars" a few things became pretty crystal clear. The most important thing is, don't waste time doing anything unless there is a pain point, problem to solve, triggering event. Wants are good, but needs are better. This is important in ROI calculation. The triggering event is the anchor point for the evaluation and defines where you are looking for the biggest "return" in the ROI.. The triggering event can be something specific like;
- "we will run out of datacenter space in 6 months"
- "it takes us 6 months to deploy an environment"
- "we are on CNN if our primary datacenter fails because we have no DR"
Alternatively, it can be softer and described as the business goal, business driver like:
- "we need to reduce operational management costs"
- "we need to improve our infrastructure utilization"
These things are scoping statements for the project and then the ROI is applied to the return for this project.
You scope the project, but if you try and calculate the return based on lifecycle costs over a long term, you will be scratching your head forever. If the ROI is not 1-3 years, then you are probably not doing it. Most likely it needs to be in less than a year. Scenario analysis is fairly simple, but a little time consuming. It is, however, a step down the direction of implementation, rather than a detour into developing a business case that will never be used or validated later. You create three (3) scenarios:
- Business as usual - sometimes this is the "no decision, decision" or just solve the problem the way you have in the past
- Option 1 - the "go big or go home" scenario, build the pure play cloud solution
- Option 2 - the "pragmatic solution", or sometimes called the cheap solution. This is often the winner, but generally can be folded into option 1 after a subsequent round of funding.
Gather the requirements. Design the end-state architectures for three options and price out the implementation and on-going costs. You are already starting the design, so when the solution is green lighted, you are ready to go..
80/20 Rule of Data
A basic premise of the Fast Track method is to make decisions based on readily available information. Creating data and model takes time and effort for little return. In the time it takes to do this, IT services are evolving and changing. So in collecting data for a ROI analysis, use what is available, don't over process it and limit yourself to the data that impacts your business. From Gartner and other models we know that the biggest contributors to ROI/TCO are;
- Hardware Costs (storage, compute, network)
- Hardware Maintenance/Support
- Software License (applications licenses, tools licenses etc..)
- Software Maintenance/Support
- Management & Operations (people, benefits etc..)
- Facilities (real estate, hvac, security etc..)
- Development/Customization/System Integration
- Opportunity Cost (increase costs in existing infrastructure by reducing its scale)
Focus on capturing this information to support the scope of your project. If your project is not looking for value in reduction of power costs, then don't include it in the model. Just deliver the value you have visbility and control over. You should try and be as complete as possible, without creating an environment of political inertia. So with this approach its easy to capture a return on investment (ROI) calculation. I need to add, that David Linthicum wrote a very relevant post that reinforced that ROI does not make a business case. You need to also include the soft value factors, which for the cloud revolve around agility and time-to-market. Hard to define or place a value, but critical to the final assessment.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Pulzze Systems will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Pulzze Systems, Inc. provides infrastructure products for the Internet of Things to enable any connected device and system to carry out matched operations without programming. For more information, visit http://www.pulzzesystems.com.
Sep. 25, 2016 06:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,798
SYS-CON Events announced today that Commvault, a global leader in enterprise data protection and information management, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Commvault is a leading provider of data protection and information management solutions, helping companies worldwide activate their data to drive more value and business insight and to transform moder...
Sep. 25, 2016 06:15 PM EDT Reads: 2,390
Fact is, enterprises have significant legacy voice infrastructure that’s costly to replace with pure IP solutions. How can we bring this analog infrastructure into our shiny new cloud applications? There are proven methods to bind both legacy voice applications and traditional PSTN audio into cloud-based applications and services at a carrier scale. Some of the most successful implementations leverage WebRTC, WebSockets, SIP and other open source technologies. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Da...
Sep. 25, 2016 05:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,535
SYS-CON Events announced today that Secure Channels will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. The bedrock of Secure Channels Technology is a uniquely modified and enhanced process based on superencipherment. Superencipherment is the process of encrypting an already encrypted message one or more times, either using the same or a different algorithm.
Sep. 25, 2016 05:15 PM EDT Reads: 1,516
Traditional on-premises data centers have long been the domain of modern data platforms like Apache Hadoop, meaning companies who build their business on public cloud were challenged to run Big Data processing and analytics at scale. But recent advancements in Hadoop performance, security, and most importantly cloud-native integrations, are giving organizations the ability to truly gain value from all their data. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, David Tishgart, Director of Product Marketing ...
Sep. 25, 2016 05:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,742
SYS-CON Events announced today that Bsquare has been named “Silver Sponsor” of SYS-CON's @ThingsExpo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. For more than two decades, Bsquare has helped its customers extract business value from a broad array of physical assets by making them intelligent, connecting them, and using the data they generate to optimize business processes.
Sep. 25, 2016 04:15 PM EDT Reads: 2,550
DevOps at Cloud Expo – being held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the world's largest enterprises – and delivering real results. Am...
Sep. 25, 2016 03:15 PM EDT Reads: 4,384
Almost two-thirds of companies either have or soon will have IoT as the backbone of their business in 2016. However, IoT is far more complex than most firms expected. How can you not get trapped in the pitfalls? In his session at @ThingsExpo, Tony Shan, a renowned visionary and thought leader, will introduce a holistic method of IoTification, which is the process of IoTifying the existing technology and business models to adopt and leverage IoT. He will drill down to the components in this fra...
Sep. 25, 2016 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,574
The vision of a connected smart home is becoming reality with the application of integrated wireless technologies in devices and appliances. The use of standardized and TCP/IP networked wireless technologies in line-powered and battery operated sensors and controls has led to the adoption of radios in the 2.4GHz band, including Wi-Fi, BT/BLE and 802.15.4 applied ZigBee and Thread. This is driving the need for robust wireless coexistence for multiple radios to ensure throughput performance and th...
Sep. 25, 2016 02:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,509
SYS-CON Events announced today the Kubernetes and Google Container Engine Workshop, being held November 3, 2016, in conjunction with @DevOpsSummit at 19th Cloud Expo at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. This workshop led by Sebastian Scheele introduces participants to Kubernetes and Google Container Engine (GKE). Through a combination of instructor-led presentations, demonstrations, and hands-on labs, students learn the key concepts and practices for deploying and maintainin...
Sep. 25, 2016 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,602
Enterprise IT has been in the era of Hybrid Cloud for some time now. But it seems most conversations about Hybrid are focused on integrating AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google ECM into existing on-premises systems. Where is all the Private Cloud? What do technology providers need to do to make their offerings more compelling? How should enterprise IT executives and buyers define their focus, needs, and roadmap, and communicate that clearly to the providers?
Sep. 25, 2016 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,514
SYS-CON Events announced today that SoftLayer, an IBM Company, has been named “Gold Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York, New York. SoftLayer, an IBM Company, provides cloud infrastructure as a service from a growing number of data centers and network points of presence around the world. SoftLayer’s customers range from Web startups to global enterprises.
Sep. 25, 2016 01:00 PM EDT Reads: 827
There is little doubt that Big Data solutions will have an increasing role in the Enterprise IT mainstream over time. Big Data at Cloud Expo - to be held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA - has announced its Call for Papers is open. Cloud computing is being adopted in one form or another by 94% of enterprises today. Tens of billions of new devices are being connected to The Internet of Things. And Big Data is driving this bus. An exponential increase is...
Sep. 25, 2016 12:45 PM EDT Reads: 2,457
Digital innovation is the next big wave of business transformation based on digital technologies of which IoT and Big Data are key components, For example: Business boundary innovation is a challenge to excavate third-party business value using IoT and BigData, like Nest Business structure innovation may propose re-building business structure from scratch, as Uber does in the taxicab industry The social model innovation is also a big challenge to the new social architecture with the design fr...
Sep. 25, 2016 12:15 PM EDT Reads: 1,112
DevOps at Cloud Expo, taking place Nov 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 19th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long dev...
Sep. 25, 2016 12:15 PM EDT Reads: 3,380
Data is an unusual currency; it is not restricted by the same transactional limitations as money or people. In fact, the more that you leverage your data across multiple business use cases, the more valuable it becomes to the organization. And the same can be said about the organization’s analytics. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Bill Schmarzo, CTO for the Big Data Practice at EMC, will introduce a methodology for capturing, enriching and sharing data (and analytics) across the organizati...
Sep. 25, 2016 11:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,646
IoT is fundamentally transforming the auto industry, turning the vehicle into a hub for connected services, including safety, infotainment and usage-based insurance. Auto manufacturers – and businesses across all verticals – have built an entire ecosystem around the Connected Car, creating new customer touch points and revenue streams. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Macario Namie, Head of IoT Strategy at Cisco Jasper, will share real-world examples of how IoT transforms the car from a static p...
Sep. 25, 2016 11:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,513
The many IoT deployments around the world are busy integrating smart devices and sensors into their enterprise IT infrastructures. Yet all of this technology – and there are an amazing number of choices – is of no use without the software to gather, communicate, and analyze the new data flows. Without software, there is no IT. In this power panel at @ThingsExpo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists will look at the protocols that communicate data and the emerging data analy...
Sep. 25, 2016 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,571
SYS-CON Events announced today that China Unicom will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. China United Network Communications Group Co. Ltd ("China Unicom") was officially established in 2009 on the basis of the merger of former China Netcom and former China Unicom. China Unicom mainly operates a full range of telecommunications services including mobile broadband (GSM, WCDMA, LTE F...
Sep. 25, 2016 10:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,700
The Transparent Cloud-computing Consortium (abbreviation: T-Cloud Consortium) will conduct research activities into changes in the computing model as a result of collaboration between "device" and "cloud" and the creation of new value and markets through organic data processing High speed and high quality networks, and dramatic improvements in computer processing capabilities, have greatly changed the nature of applications and made the storing and processing of data on the network commonplace.
Sep. 25, 2016 10:15 AM EDT Reads: 875