Welcome!

@CloudExpo Authors: Liz McMillan, APM Blog, Elizabeth White, Xenia von Wedel, Mauro Carniel

Related Topics: @CloudExpo, Microservices Expo

@CloudExpo: Interview

Cloud Computing and the Hype Cycle

Interview with Mark Raskino, Vice President at Gartner

I had the opportunity to talk to Mark Raskino, Vice President at Gartner, at the "UT Messa" in Reykjavik (Iceland). Mark is one of the authors of the book Mastering the Gartner Hype-Cycle. At the conference, Mark gave the keynote, and I presented a talk on Cloud Computing. This interview is about how to Master the Gartner Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing. This interview represents Mark's opinion, not the opinion of his employer Gartner.

Mario Meir-Huber: We currently have the IT trend "Cloud Computing" and it's interesting to compare this trend to the "Cloud." Where would you see this trend?

Mark Raskino: It's important to understand what the hype cycle is all about. There are two axes. The x-axis is the time and the y-axis is the expectations for a technology - the future value people expect to obtain from it. The hype cycle contains five major phases. The first one is the technology trigger. This is when a product gets launched or there is an event for a technology to be adopted. Next, is the "Peak of Inflated Expectations." This is a phase where a product or technology is overhyped and people expect more than it can actually serve. This leads to the next major phase, the "Trough of Disillusionment." This happens when people find out that the technology can't entirely serve their needs or it's not as good as marketing told us. The topic is no longer hyped by the press. In this phase, some businesses start to use the technology, which leads to the fourth phase, the "Slope of Enlightenment." The hype is gone and finally we reach the "Plateau of Productivity."

Meir-Huber: Where would you say Cloud Computing is at the moment?

Raskino: This is hard to tell, since Cloud Computing is not one "thing." A lot of technologies exist in the cloud. There is SaaS, PaaS, IaaS and a lot of different products. Some products might be at the peak of inflated expectations and others might be at the plateau of productivity, and others in between. But you should keep in mind that Cloud Computing is hyped a lot and it is rather a new technology.

Meir-Huber: If a technology is in the Peak of Inflated expectations, when can we expect the technology to be in the phase where we can "really" use it? Is there any time frame of, e.g., two years to get into it?

Raskino: This is also different from technology to technology. If we look at podcasting, the cycle took about three years until it was adopted by Apple. If we focus on CRM, it took some 25 years and there is still some hype around it. What is also important to mention is that the "Plateau of Productivity" can be at a higher visibility as the usual Peak. As mentioned before, the hype cycle is individual. Cloud Storage, for example, is different than other areas of the cloud.

Meir-Huber: Since we are talking about Cloud Computing as Hype - what do you think about the "Hype"?

Raskino: The term "Cloud Computing" is definitely hyped at the moment. However, the word is "hijacked" by marketing. A lot of companies now use Cloud Computing since it's everywhere in the press. The question is whether this is a good thing for the technology itself.

Meir-Huber: What do you think will happen "after the hype"?

Raskino: Sometimes a technology simply drops off the hype cycle because it fails - a recent example was Internet service over utility power lines. We don't expect that to happen with Cloud Computing, but as any technology passes through the trough of disillusionment we expect to see dissonance and turmoil among the business models and vendors.

Meir-Huber: Talking about SaaS, PaaS and IaaS, what would you say to the different platform levels?

Raskino: I would say that SaaS is more mature than the other platform levels. We currently see an increase in IaaS as this topic seems to be very visible in the press. There is a high adoption process. It's important to mention that the hype cycle informs the buyers as to how mature a technology is. If you are a CIO or CEO of a company, you need to find out if the technology is in a state that is easy for you to use. It's up to you to decide to "play early" or to get into the technology rather late - at a time when it is already mature.

Meir-Huber: What do you think Cloud Computing means to data centers?

Raskino: I absolutely like the way how data centers are built. We could say that Cloud Computing is the industrialization for data centers, right? The data centers are more efficient, you have great possibilities, but on the other hand you need to have a lot of money to build such data centers. It is critical where datacenter owners build the data centers as they need efficient cooling, cheap energy and so on.

Meir-Huber: What would you recommend companies do with Cloud Computing?

Raskino: If we look at the Hype Cycle, there are several things we can do in order to master the hype. First, there is the question of whether you play early or late. The hype cycle tells us where a technology is at the moment, so IT decision makers can find out what phase a technology is in. If you decide to play early, you will have an advantage in terms of competition. On the other hand, it's important to know that you can fail and you have higher risk. At the moment, you can experiment with Cloud Computing in the hype phase. If you decide to play late, you get a mature "product" or "technology" but you lose the advantage I mentioned before (assumed: competition). If you are already "into" Cloud Computing and you want to master the hype, it's important not to give up in disillusionment.

In 2003 when Software as a Service became popular (it was named ASP - Application Service Providing back than) many gave up. Those that didn't give up improved their platforms and are now very successful. If you are not into Cloud Computing right now, you shouldn't dive in just because it's popular. Once a technology is in the "Hype," it's like a fashion thing. Many dive in just because it is very trendy and there is this feeling that you need to get into it. Just wait until it's proven and stable. However, there is always this difference between a time-based tradeoff or a mature thing for companies. But you can't have both.

More Stories By Mario Meir-Huber

Mario Meir-Huber studied Information Systems at the University of Linz. He worked in the IT sector for some years before founding CodeForce, an IT consulting and services company together with Andreas Aschauer. Since the advent of Cloud Computing, he has been passionate about this technology. He talks about Cloud Computing at various international events and conferences and writes for industry-leading magazines on cloud computing. He is Cloud Computing expert in various independent IT organizations and wrote a book on Cloud Computing covering all topics of the Cloud. You can follow Mario on Twitter (@mario_mh) or read his Blog at http://cloudvane.wordpress.com.

Comments (0)

Share your thoughts on this story.

Add your comment
You must be signed in to add a comment. Sign-in | Register

In accordance with our Comment Policy, we encourage comments that are on topic, relevant and to-the-point. We will remove comments that include profanity, personal attacks, racial slurs, threats of violence, or other inappropriate material that violates our Terms and Conditions, and will block users who make repeated violations. We ask all readers to expect diversity of opinion and to treat one another with dignity and respect.


@CloudExpo Stories
Coca-Cola’s Google powered digital signage system lays the groundwork for a more valuable connection between Coke and its customers. Digital signs pair software with high-resolution displays so that a message can be changed instantly based on what the operator wants to communicate or sell. In their Day 3 Keynote at 21st Cloud Expo, Greg Chambers, Global Group Director, Digital Innovation, Coca-Cola, and Vidya Nagarajan, a Senior Product Manager at Google, discussed how from store operations and ...
"There's plenty of bandwidth out there but it's never in the right place. So what Cedexis does is uses data to work out the best pathways to get data from the origin to the person who wants to get it," explained Simon Jones, Evangelist and Head of Marketing at Cedexis, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Carl J. Levine, Senior Technical Evangelist for NS1, will objectively discuss how DNS is used to solve Digital Transformation challenges in large SaaS applications, CDNs, AdTech platforms, and other demanding use cases. Carl J. Levine is the Senior Technical Evangelist for NS1. A veteran of the Internet Infrastructure space, he has over a decade of experience with startups, networking protocols and Internet infrastructure, combined with the unique ability to it...
Agile has finally jumped the technology shark, expanding outside the software world. Enterprises are now increasingly adopting Agile practices across their organizations in order to successfully navigate the disruptive waters that threaten to drown them. In our quest for establishing change as a core competency in our organizations, this business-centric notion of Agile is an essential component of Agile Digital Transformation. In the years since the publication of the Agile Manifesto, the conn...
SYS-CON Events announced today that CrowdReviews.com has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 22nd International Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 5–7, 2018, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. CrowdReviews.com is a transparent online platform for determining which products and services are the best based on the opinion of the crowd. The crowd consists of Internet users that have experienced products and services first-hand and have an interest in letting other potential buye...
Enterprises are moving to the cloud faster than most of us in security expected. CIOs are going from 0 to 100 in cloud adoption and leaving security teams in the dust. Once cloud is part of an enterprise stack, it’s unclear who has responsibility for the protection of applications, services, and data. When cloud breaches occur, whether active compromise or a publicly accessible database, the blame must fall on both service providers and users. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Ben Johnson, C...
"We're developing a software that is based on the cloud environment and we are providing those services to corporations and the general public," explained Seungmin Kim, CEO/CTO of SM Systems Inc., in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Enterprises are adopting Kubernetes to accelerate the development and the delivery of cloud-native applications. However, sharing a Kubernetes cluster between members of the same team can be challenging. And, sharing clusters across multiple teams is even harder. Kubernetes offers several constructs to help implement segmentation and isolation. However, these primitives can be complex to understand and apply. As a result, it’s becoming common for enterprises to end up with several clusters. Thi...
"MobiDev is a software development company and we do complex, custom software development for everybody from entrepreneurs to large enterprises," explained Alan Winters, U.S. Head of Business Development at MobiDev, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Data scientists must access high-performance computing resources across a wide-area network. To achieve cloud-based HPC visualization, researchers must transfer datasets and visualization results efficiently. HPC clusters now compute GPU-accelerated visualization in the cloud cluster. To efficiently display results remotely, a high-performance, low-latency protocol transfers the display from the cluster to a remote desktop. Further, tools to easily mount remote datasets and efficiently transfer...
"Codigm is based on the cloud and we are here to explore marketing opportunities in America. Our mission is to make an ecosystem of the SW environment that anyone can understand, learn, teach, and develop the SW on the cloud," explained Sung Tae Ryu, CEO of Codigm, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Telecom Reseller has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 22nd International Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 5-7, 2018, at the Javits Center in New York, NY. Telecom Reseller reports on Unified Communications, UCaaS, BPaaS for enterprise and SMBs. They report extensively on both customer premises based solutions such as IP-PBX as well as cloud based and hosted platforms.
WebRTC is great technology to build your own communication tools. It will be even more exciting experience it with advanced devices, such as a 360 Camera, 360 microphone, and a depth sensor camera. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Masashi Ganeko, a manager at INFOCOM Corporation, introduced two experimental projects from his team and what they learned from them. "Shotoku Tamago" uses the robot audition software HARK to track speakers in 360 video of a remote party. "Virtual Teleport" uses a multip...
In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, James Henry, Co-CEO/CTO of Calgary Scientific Inc., introduced you to the challenges, solutions and benefits of training AI systems to solve visual problems with an emphasis on improving AIs with continuous training in the field. He explored applications in several industries and discussed technologies that allow the deployment of advanced visualization solutions to the cloud.
"Infoblox does DNS, DHCP and IP address management for not only enterprise networks but cloud networks as well. Customers are looking for a single platform that can extend not only in their private enterprise environment but private cloud, public cloud, tracking all the IP space and everything that is going on in that environment," explained Steve Salo, Principal Systems Engineer at Infoblox, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Conventio...
"We're focused on how to get some of the attributes that you would expect from an Amazon, Azure, Google, and doing that on-prem. We believe today that you can actually get those types of things done with certain architectures available in the market today," explained Steve Conner, VP of Sales at Cloudistics, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
"NetApp is known as a data management leader but we do a lot more than just data management on-prem with the data centers of our customers. We're also big in the hybrid cloud," explained Wes Talbert, Principal Architect at NetApp, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Gemini is Yahoo’s native and search advertising platform. To ensure the quality of a complex distributed system that spans multiple products and components and across various desktop websites and mobile app and web experiences – both Yahoo owned and operated and third-party syndication (supply), with complex interaction with more than a billion users and numerous advertisers globally (demand) – it becomes imperative to automate a set of end-to-end tests 24x7 to detect bugs and regression. In th...
"Space Monkey by Vivent Smart Home is a product that is a distributed cloud-based edge storage network. Vivent Smart Home, our parent company, is a smart home provider that places a lot of hard drives across homes in North America," explained JT Olds, Director of Engineering, and Brandon Crowfeather, Product Manager, at Vivint Smart Home, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
The question before companies today is not whether to become intelligent, it’s a question of how and how fast. The key is to adopt and deploy an intelligent application strategy while simultaneously preparing to scale that intelligence. In her session at 21st Cloud Expo, Sangeeta Chakraborty, Chief Customer Officer at Ayasdi, provided a tactical framework to become a truly intelligent enterprise, including how to identify the right applications for AI, how to build a Center of Excellence to oper...