|By Jason Bloomberg||
|January 4, 2013 09:45 AM EST||
Welcome to the twelfth – yes, the twelfth! – annual installment of ZapThink’s annual retrospective and predictions for the coming year. Since we started the trend with our 2003 predictions and 2002 retrospective ZapFlash, we have taken a different tack than most IT prognosticators in that we actually grade ourselves on our predictions from the previous year, for better or worse. Last year we scored ourselves 2.5 out of 3, even going so far as to predict Amazon’s 2011 crash. Predictions for 2012? Not so good. But regardless of how well our guesses turned out, the result still makes for a story worth telling.
Our Results from Last Year
We made three predictions for 2012 in last year’s ZapFlash:
Future First steals thunder from the Cloud – We expected a shift in the US government’s attention away from Cloud Computing and the FedRAMP initiative to Federal CIO Steven VanRoekel’s Future First initiative, which combined Cloud, lean approaches, Agile, and open source. We’re awarding ourselves a score of 75% on this one. Yes, FedRAMP has become more time-consuming and bureaucratic as we predicted, and the government is moving forward with notable Agile successes as well as greater open source efforts. But unfortunately, the “Future First” moniker has not caught the excitement of the government or the public the way we had hoped it would.
HTML 5 becomes the glue of the ZapThink 2020 vision – We’ll give ourselves half a point on this one. Yes, according to the W3C, HTML 5 is now feature complete: an important milestone on the road to becoming a fully ratified standard. But that doesn’t mean it’s far enough along for broad adoption, or that it contains all the features everybody wants from it. Mobile phone developers are still more likely to code within the native environments on their respective devices, citing HTML 5 compatibility and performance issues. And then there’s all the work going into HTML 5.1. Yes, maybe HTML 5 will be the glue someday, but the glue is far from dry.
The rise of RESTful BPM – We hedged our bets on this one, pointing out that all 2012 would bring on this topic would be increased buzz. But in all fairness, we missed the target on this one. We couldn’t identify any buzz around Business Process Management (BPM) at all in 2012, RESTful or otherwise. Perhaps our timing was off, but there are no indications that RESTful BPM will be a hot topic in 2013 either.
Predictions for 2013
You’d think after awarding ourselves a dismal 1.25 out of 3, we’d make some safer predictions for 2013. Well, that’s not the ZapThink way. Here, then, are our prognostications for the coming year.
Cloudwashing reaches a level of desperation – Vendors’ all-to-common practice of using the “Cloud” label on their products or services regardless of whether what they’re offering has anything to do with the Cloud, aka Cloudwashing, is nothing new. But we predict that in 2013, Cloudwashing will reach a fevered pitch, as many vendors finally realize that they simply cannot leverage the Cloud cost-effectively in their product strategies. After all, Cloud Computing is inherently threatening to traditional vendors, as it enables customers to avoid purchasing their products altogether. Expect to hear louder, more extreme condemnations of Public Clouds, more detailed and elaborate Cloudwashing obfuscations of product features, and perhaps a few spectacular vendor flameouts.
There is also a serious risk that the Cloudwashers will win this battle. Just as the middleware vendors won the SOA battle, turning an architectural approach into a set of ESB features, “Cloud” vendors may wreak the same havoc with the Cloud. Here’s how you can tell if a vendor is trying to pull the wool over your eyes: cross out the word “Cloud” in their marketing and write in either “Web” or “virtualized data center.” If their marketing ends up saying essentially the same thing as it did when it was Cloudwashed, you know they’re trying to fool you. Be warned!
Next generation SOA begins to coalesce – For years, ZapThink has touted the difference between the practice of SOA and purported implementations of SOA. Our mantra has always been that SOA is protocol and technology independent: it doesn’t require Web Services, or ESBs, or any of the heavyweight IT infrastructure that has given SOA its reputation of complexity and failure. With the rise of Cloud Computing, architects are increasingly realizing that the bits and pieces of SOA best practice – loose coupling, intermediary-based abstraction, and automated governance, to name a few – can and should be applied as appropriate, independent of the existence of any specific, funded SOA effort.
In 2013, we predict that these miscellaneous patterns and practices will gradually coalesce into a kind of “post-SOA” architectural approach. Yes, it will still center on achieving greater levels of business agility in the context of heterogeneous resources, but this next-generation architecture ZapThink calls Agile Architecture goes beyond middleware-centric legacy enablement, leveraging hypermedia-driven, Cloud based approaches for achieving agility in the enterprise. In fact, it’s no mistake that this next generation approach is at the core of our new book, The Agile Architecture Revolution, coming out in the spring.
Cyber-9/11 – Finally, a prediction we sincerely hope does not come to pass. We predict some kind of Cyberattack so remarkable, so damaging, that it forever changes the way the world looks at the ongoing Cyberwar. Just as 9/11 changed our world forever, the attack we predict will have the same kind of psychological impact. You may not believe we’re in the midst of a Cyberwar now, but after the Cyber-9/11, no one will have any remaining doubts.
The ZapThink Take
The common theme across our three predictions is some kind of conflict between two opposing forces. We have the dinosaur software vendors struggling to maintain relevance vs. the new world of the Cloud. There’s old guard SOA, mired in the complexity of middleware and Web Services, vs. lightweight, hypermedia-driven, Cloud-friendly approaches to achieving greater agility via loose coupling. And there’s the world before the Cyber-9/11, where people don’t even realize they’re fighting a Cyberwar, vs. post-Cyber-9/11, where the rules of Cyberspace suddenly and dramatically rewrite themselves.
Fundamentally, this dichotomy is between the old way of doing things: slow, expensive, and inflexible, vs. the new way: agile, lightweight, and Web-centric. This dichotomy plays itself out in enterprises across the world. It’s one aspect of the perennial battle between siloed, bureaucratic organizations that lead to redundant legacy environments and architecture-driven organizations that can innovate even as they grow. The bureaucracies are the incumbents, the innovators are the challengers. Will 2013 be the year the advantage shifts to the innovators? Only time will tell.
Image credit: Mark Skipper
The buzz continues for cloud, data analytics and the Internet of Things (IoT) and their collective impact across all industries. But a new conversation is emerging - how do companies use industry disruption and technology enablers to lead in markets undergoing change, uncertainty and ambiguity? Organizations of all sizes need to evolve and transform, often under massive pressure, as industry lines blur and merge and traditional business models are assaulted and turned upside down. In this new da...
Oct. 9, 2015 04:00 PM EDT Reads: 302
The Internet of Things (IoT) is growing rapidly by extending current technologies, products and networks. By 2020, Cisco estimates there will be 50 billion connected devices. Gartner has forecast revenues of over $300 billion, just to IoT suppliers. Now is the time to figure out how you’ll make money – not just create innovative products. With hundreds of new products and companies jumping into the IoT fray every month, there’s no shortage of innovation. Despite this, McKinsey/VisionMobile data...
Oct. 9, 2015 04:00 PM EDT Reads: 232
The web app is agile. The REST API is agile. The testing and planning are agile. But alas, data infrastructures certainly are not. Once an application matures, changing the shape or indexing scheme of data often forces at best a top down planning exercise and at worst includes schema changes that force downtime. The time has come for a new approach that fundamentally advances the agility of distributed data infrastructures. Come learn about a new solution to the problems faced by software organ...
Oct. 9, 2015 04:00 PM EDT Reads: 886
You have your devices and your data, but what about the rest of your Internet of Things story? Two popular classes of technologies that nicely handle the Big Data analytics for Internet of Things are Apache Hadoop and NoSQL. Hadoop is designed for parallelizing analytical work across many servers and is ideal for the massive data volumes you create with IoT devices. NoSQL databases such as Apache HBase are ideal for storing and retrieving IoT data as “time series data.”
Oct. 9, 2015 03:45 PM EDT Reads: 504
Today air travel is a minefield of delays, hassles and customer disappointment. Airlines struggle to revitalize the experience. GE and M2Mi will demonstrate practical examples of how IoT solutions are helping airlines bring back personalization, reduce trip time and improve reliability. In their session at @ThingsExpo, Shyam Varan Nath, Principal Architect with GE, and Dr. Sarah Cooper, M2Mi's VP Business Development and Engineering, will explore the IoT cloud-based platform technologies driv...
Oct. 9, 2015 03:30 PM EDT Reads: 105
There are many considerations when moving applications from on-premise to cloud. It is critical to understand the benefits and also challenges of this migration. A successful migration will result in lower Total Cost of Ownership, yet offer the same or higher level of robustness. Migration to cloud shifts computing resources from your data center, which can yield significant advantages provided that the cloud vendor an offer enterprise-grade quality for your application.
Oct. 9, 2015 03:30 PM EDT Reads: 288
As a CIO, are your direct reports IT managers or are they IT leaders? The hard truth is that many IT managers have risen through the ranks based on their technical skills, not their leadership ability. Many are unable to effectively engage and inspire, creating forward momentum in the direction of desired change. Renowned for its approach to leadership and emphasis on their people, organizations increasingly look to our military for insight into these challenges.
Oct. 9, 2015 03:15 PM EDT Reads: 153
The Internet of Everything is re-shaping technology trends–moving away from “request/response” architecture to an “always-on” Streaming Web where data is in constant motion and secure, reliable communication is an absolute necessity. As more and more THINGS go online, the challenges that developers will need to address will only increase exponentially. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Todd Greene, Founder & CEO of PubNub, will explore the current state of IoT connectivity and review key trends an...
Oct. 9, 2015 03:05 PM EDT
Saviynt Inc. has announced the availability of the next release of Saviynt for AWS. The comprehensive security and compliance solution provides a Command-and-Control center to gain visibility into risks in AWS, enforce real-time protection of critical workloads as well as data and automate access life-cycle governance. The solution enables AWS customers to meet their compliance mandates such as ITAR, SOX, PCI, etc. by including an extensive risk and controls library to detect known threats and b...
Oct. 9, 2015 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 232
SYS-CON Events announced today that Key Information Systems, Inc. (KeyInfo), a leading cloud and infrastructure provider offering integrated solutions to enterprises, will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Key Information Systems is a leading regional systems integrator with world-class compute, storage and networking solutions and professional services for the most advanced softwa...
Oct. 9, 2015 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 391
In recent years, at least 40% of companies using cloud applications have experienced data loss. One of the best prevention against cloud data loss is backing up your cloud data. In his General Session at 17th Cloud Expo, Bryan Forrester, Senior Vice President of Sales at eFolder, will present how organizations can use eFolder Cloudfinder to automate backups of cloud application data. He will also demonstrate how easy it is to search and restore cloud application data using Cloudfinder.
Oct. 9, 2015 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 481
Achim Weiss is Chief Executive Officer and co-founder of ProfitBricks. In 1995, he broke off his studies to co-found the web hosting company "Schlund+Partner." The company "Schlund+Partner" later became the 1&1 web hosting product line. From 1995 to 2008, he was the technical director for several important projects: the largest web hosting platform in the world, the second largest DSL platform, a video on-demand delivery network, the largest eMail backend in Europe, and a universal billing syste...
Oct. 9, 2015 02:45 PM EDT Reads: 186
Containers have changed the mind of IT in DevOps. They enable developers to work with dev, test, stage and production environments identically. Containers provide the right abstraction for microservices and many cloud platforms have integrated them into deployment pipelines. DevOps and Containers together help companies to achieve their business goals faster and more effectively.
Oct. 9, 2015 02:15 PM EDT Reads: 169
The enterprise is being consumerized, and the consumer is being enterprised. Moore's Law does not matter anymore, the future belongs to business virtualization powered by invisible service architecture, powered by hyperscale and hyperconvergence, and facilitated by vertical streaming and horizontal scaling and consolidation. Both buyers and sellers want instant results, and from paperwork to paperless to mindless is the ultimate goal for any seamless transaction. The sweetest sweet spot in innov...
Oct. 9, 2015 02:15 PM EDT Reads: 209
The IoT is upon us, but today’s databases, built on 30-year-old math, require multiple platforms to create a single solution. Data demands of the IoT require Big Data systems that can handle ingest, transactions and analytics concurrently adapting to varied situations as they occur, with speed at scale. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Chad Jones, chief strategy officer at Deep Information Sciences, will look differently at IoT data so enterprises can fully leverage their IoT potential. He’ll sha...
Oct. 9, 2015 01:45 PM EDT Reads: 561
Overgrown applications have given way to modular applications, driven by the need to break larger problems into smaller problems. Similarly large monolithic development processes have been forced to be broken into smaller agile development cycles. Looking at trends in software development, microservices architectures meet the same demands. Additional benefits of microservices architectures are compartmentalization and a limited impact of service failure versus a complete software malfunction....
Oct. 9, 2015 01:15 PM EDT Reads: 250
For almost two decades, businesses have discovered great opportunities to engage with customers and even expand revenue through digital systems, including web and mobile applications. Yet, even now, the conversation between the business and the technologists that deliver these systems is strained, in large part due to misaligned objectives. In his session at DevOps Summit, James Urquhart, Senior Vice President of Performance Analytics at SOASTA, Inc., will discuss how measuring user outcomes –...
Oct. 9, 2015 01:00 PM EDT Reads: 466
As a company adopts a DevOps approach to software development, what are key things that both the Dev and Ops side of the business must keep in mind to ensure effective continuous delivery? In his session at DevOps Summit, Mark Hydar, Head of DevOps, Ericsson TV Platforms, will share best practices and provide helpful tips for Ops teams to adopt an open line of communication with the development side of the house to ensure success between the two sides.
Oct. 9, 2015 01:00 PM EDT Reads: 602
SYS-CON Events announced today that ProfitBricks, the provider of painless cloud infrastructure, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. ProfitBricks is the IaaS provider that offers a painless cloud experience for all IT users, with no learning curve. ProfitBricks boasts flexible cloud servers and networking, an integrated Data Center Designer tool for visual control over the...
Oct. 9, 2015 01:00 PM EDT Reads: 794
Manufacturing has widely adopted standardized and automated processes to create designs, build them, and maintain them through their life cycle. However, many modern manufacturing systems go beyond mechanized workflows to introduce empowered workers, flexible collaboration, and rapid iteration. Such behaviors also characterize open source software development and are at the heart of DevOps culture, processes, and tooling.
Oct. 9, 2015 12:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,103