|By Tom Major||
|February 22, 2013 09:00 AM EST||
I have been working for technology companies for 33 years now, so I don't know why I'm always surprised at the technology myths that proliferate. For example, there is a popular notion running around that Solid State Drives (SSDs) will replace Hard Disk Drives (HDDs) as the dominant storage media. So, which will win? Let me give you my answer upfront before I take you through my arguments: both win, and the market size for both continues to grow.
As I offer up this data and this perspective, I'll repeat some advice I received early in my career. A mentor once told me, when searching for the truth in business and technology "look to the economics" (maybe my version of "go to the mattresses" for you "Godfather" fans).
Here is what I read and hear on a regular basis regarding the battle of HDDs and SSDs:
- SSDs run circles around HDDs for performance
- SSDs will soon replace HDDs
- The improving density of SSDs will collapse the current cost premium to HDDs
Sound familiar? Well, as with most claims of this ilk, there are some elements of truth to them but each of these statements goes too far when viewed in light of some data.
Yes, it's true that SSDs are fundamentally faster than HDDs. This is particularly true of random I/O data reading (as with databases). With large block sequential data (i.e., rich media like video), however, this difference tends to be very small.
Here's a claim where the data just doesn't add up. While the attractiveness of the SSD technology would lead one to believe this, the economics really don't hold up. I should probably point more specifically to NAND flash here (the "solid state" in SSDs) because another solid state technology might actually achieve this, but that appears to be years and tens of billions of dollars away.
Let's talk for a minute about the world's demand for storage. Last year approximately 2500 exabytes of data was created and/or replicated. And...this is doubling about every two years. This needs to be serviced largely by HDDs and SSDs. Last year, the NAND flash industry produced somewhere between 30 and 40 exabytes of storage; with somewhere around 3.5 exabytes finding its way into SSDs (the balance in phones, tablets, cameras, etc.). What is that, 1.4% of our total storage need? But production is ramping up... at a capital cost of about $1.5 billion per Exabyte (semiconductor fabs are expensive)! So, from an available supply perspective, SSDs replacing HDDs seems implausible.
Improving Technology Makes SSDs Cheaper
Agree. The NAND flash technology point is at 21nm line widths with plans to move to 19, then 16 nm. Storage density is further improving with the use of multi-level cell (MLC) capabilities vs single-level cell (SLC). This is bringing down the cost of solid state storage in much the same way the areal density increases seen in HDDs brought down the cost of hard drive storage.
Notice how I said "brought" down (i.e., past tense)? Because a real density growth in the hard drive industry has slowed to a crawl, the rapid erosion of cost/Gb has also slowed to a crawl. Now, the HDD industry needs to move to its next technology (HAMR?) to continue to take cost out and HAMR is a number of years away. HAMR will require significant capital investment by the HDD companies. Significant capital investment will be required anyway to keep up with storage demand (even more so with slowing areal density growth). This all spells out a flattening of HDD costs for the foreseeable future. Some would speculate that a renewed interest in improving the utilization of HDD capacity is an artifact of these economics.
Here's what's preventing the complete collapse of the price difference between the two technologies. The NAND flash suppliers have a similar problem as the HDD manufacturers... the implications of shrinking technology geometries. As the line widths shrink, the ability of flash to sustain multiple write-erase cycles declines. To make up for this deficiency, sophisticated error-correction algorithms and "brute force" overprovisioning (to allow some cells to wear out) are being used. This and the above mentioned semiconductor fab costs tend to mitigate the progress SSDs are making in closing the cost gap to HDDs.
Having made my arguments that SSDs won't take over the world, I have to say that IT solutions need this technology. I think you can see that SSDs aren't the answer to all our storage needs, but they allow us to address a crying storage requirement. At a high level, storage is called on to produce two key deliverables:
- Make data available to an application or user in an appropriate timeframe (i.e., performance) and in today's environment this need is growing.
- Store data reliably (i.e., capacity) and in today's environment this need is growing
By and large, to date, systems with hard drives have been architected to deliver both of these capabilities. It's hard to argue that hard drives haven't done a good job of delivering affordable capacity. But to deliver against the performance requirements of IT solutions, hard drives:
- Have been developed with higher speeds, but arguably little progress has been made in the last ten years
- Have been "short stroked" (a technique limiting the stroke of the actuator to improve performance)
- Have been grouped together to allow striping of data across a large number of drives to aggregate their performance.
With each of these approaches the user suffers from higher power requirements, and with the last two approaches their system has been overprovisioned (leaving stranded capacity) to deliver performance. This all adds up to significant system cost that can be avoided with new storage architectures.
Here's where SSDs come in. SSDs are proving to be a technology answer to the new generation of storage needs, both the growing performance and the growing capacity requirements. Here's the simple, logical way to think about SSDs and HDDs and their role in storage solutions. Use the right tool for the job. That is, take advantage of SSDs for performance (particularly small block, random I/O) and HDDs for capacity.
You might challenge me now and ask, "Does adding SSDs (Flash) to IT solutions make economic sense?" SSDs are expensive, but, used appropriately, SSDs can also minimize the number of HDDs required in a given solution. The secret is in optimizing the use of both, that is, avoid overprovisioning of both. Thin provisioning of capacity has become popular as a cost saver. Similarly, thin provisioning of performance is a similar cost saver. (This is a benefit of virtualized caching or tiering capabilities of newer storage solutions.)
I'll close with a few proof points. Look to the latest economically sensible storage solutions that are answering today's performance and capacity calls. The vast majority of affordable "Ultrabooks" incorporate both flash and hard drive technology, as does Apple's latest "Fusion" drive.
17th Cloud Expo, taking place Nov 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy. Meanwhile, 94% of enterprises ar...
Jul. 3, 2015 08:00 PM EDT Reads: 670
The 5th International DevOps Summit, co-located with 17th International Cloud Expo – being held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the ...
Jul. 3, 2015 07:15 PM EDT Reads: 579
DevOps Summit, taking place Nov 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 17th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long development...
Jul. 3, 2015 07:00 PM EDT Reads: 702
IT data is typically silo'd by the various tools in place. Unifying all the log, metric and event data in one analytics platform stops finger pointing and provides the end-to-end correlation. Logs, metrics and custom event data can be joined to tell the holistic story of your software and operations. For example, users can correlate code deploys to system performance to application error codes. In his session at DevOps Summit, Michael Demmer, VP of Engineering at Jut, will discuss how this can...
Jul. 3, 2015 07:00 PM EDT Reads: 863
"Plutora provides release and testing environment capabilities to the enterprise," explained Dalibor Siroky, Director and Co-founder of Plutora, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @DevOpsSummit, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
Jul. 3, 2015 06:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,258
The 17th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. 17th International Cloud Expo, to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, APM, APIs, Microservices, Security, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding bu...
Jul. 3, 2015 05:30 PM EDT Reads: 553
"AgilData is the next generation of dbShards. It just adds a whole bunch more functionality to improve the developer experience," noted Dan Lynn, CEO of AgilData, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 16th Cloud Expo, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
Jul. 3, 2015 05:00 PM EDT Reads: 934
The basic integration architecture, as defined by ESBs, hasn’t changed for more than a decade. Most cloud integration providers still rely on an ESB architecture and their proprietary connectors. As a result, enterprise integration projects suffer from constraints of availability and reliability of these connectors that are not re-usable across other integration vendors. However, the rapid adoption of APIs and almost ubiquitous availability of APIs amongst most SaaS and Cloud applications are ra...
Jul. 3, 2015 04:45 PM EDT Reads: 857
SYS-CON Events announced today that Secure Infrastructure & Services will exhibit at SYS-CON's 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS) is a managed services provider of cloud computing solutions for the IBM Power Systems market. The company helps mid-market firms built on IBM hardware platforms to deploy new levels of reliable and cost-effective computing and hig...
Jul. 3, 2015 04:15 PM EDT Reads: 701
"We help to transform an organization and their operations and make them more efficient, more agile, and more nimble to move into the cloud or to move between cloud providers and create an agnostic tool set," noted Jeremy Steinert, DevOps Services Practice Lead at WSM International, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @DevOpsSummit, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
Jul. 3, 2015 02:45 PM EDT Reads: 829
The most often asked question post-DevOps introduction is: “How do I get started?” There’s plenty of information on why DevOps is valid and important, but many managers still struggle with simple basics for how to initiate a DevOps program in their business. They struggle with issues related to current organizational inertia, the lack of experience on Continuous Integration/Delivery, understanding where DevOps will affect revenue and budget, etc. In their session at DevOps Summit, JP Morgenthal...
Jul. 3, 2015 02:45 PM EDT Reads: 918
One of the hottest areas in cloud right now is DRaaS and related offerings. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Dale Levesque, Disaster Recovery Product Manager with Windstream's Cloud and Data Center Marketing team, will discuss the benefits of the cloud model, which far outweigh the traditional approach, and how enterprises need to ensure that their needs are properly being met.
Jul. 3, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,183
The time is ripe for high speed resilient software defined storage solutions with unlimited scalability. ISS has been working with the leading open source projects and developed a commercial high performance solution that is able to grow forever without performance limitations. In his session at Cloud Expo, Alex Gorbachev, President of Intelligent Systems Services Inc., shared foundation principles of Ceph architecture, as well as the design to deliver this storage to traditional SAN storage co...
Jul. 3, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,144
Discussions about cloud computing are evolving into discussions about enterprise IT in general. As enterprises increasingly migrate toward their own unique clouds, new issues such as the use of containers and microservices emerge to keep things interesting. In this Power Panel at 16th Cloud Expo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists addressed the state of cloud computing today, and what enterprise IT professionals need to know about how the latest topics and trends affect t...
Jul. 3, 2015 12:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,401
"We provide a web application framework for building really sophisticated web applications that run on a browser without any installation need so we get used for biotech, defense, and banking applications," noted Charles Kendrick, CTO and Chief Architect at Isomorphic Software, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @DevOpsSummit (http://DevOpsSummit.SYS-CON.com), held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York
Jul. 3, 2015 12:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,289
It is one thing to build single industrial IoT applications, but what will it take to build the Smart Cities and truly society-changing applications of the future? The technology won’t be the problem, it will be the number of parties that need to work together and be aligned in their motivation to succeed. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Jason Mondanaro, Director, Product Management at Metanga, discussed how you can plan to cooperate, partner, and form lasting all-star teams to change the world...
Jul. 3, 2015 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,385
In the midst of the widespread popularity and adoption of cloud computing, it seems like everything is being offered “as a Service” these days: Infrastructure? Check. Platform? You bet. Software? Absolutely. Toaster? It’s only a matter of time. With service providers positioning vastly differing offerings under a generic “cloud” umbrella, it’s all too easy to get confused about what’s actually being offered. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Kevin Hazard, Director of Digital Content for SoftL...
Jul. 3, 2015 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,340
Today air travel is a minefield of delays, hassles and customer disappointment. Airlines struggle to revitalize the experience. GE and M2Mi will demonstrate practical examples of how IoT solutions are helping airlines bring back personalization, reduce trip time and improve reliability. In their session at @ThingsExpo, Shyam Varan Nath, Principal Architect with GE, and Dr. Sarah Cooper, M2Mi’s VP Business Development and Engineering, will explore the IoT cloud-based platform technologies drivi...
Jul. 3, 2015 11:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,262
"What Dyn is able to do with our Internet performance and our Internet intelligence is give companies visibility into what is actually going on in that cloud," noted Corey Hamilton, Product Marketing Manager at Dyn, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 16th Cloud Expo, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
Jul. 3, 2015 11:45 AM EDT Reads: 927
Containers have changed the mind of IT in DevOps. They enable developers to work with dev, test, stage and production environments identically. Containers provide the right abstraction for microservices and many cloud platforms have integrated them into deployment pipelines. DevOps and Containers together help companies to achieve their business goals faster and more effectively. In his session at DevOps Summit, Ruslan Synytsky, CEO and Co-founder of Jelastic, reviewed the current landscape of...
Jul. 3, 2015 11:15 AM EDT Reads: 2,394