|By Jason Bloomberg||
|December 20, 2013 10:00 AM EST||
At last, the moment has arrived: the thirteenth and final installment of ZapThink’s annual retrospective and predictions written by one of ZapThink’s original members. ZapThink will live on as a division of Dovel Technologies, and I will continue my thought leadership at an as yet unselected opportunity, so in a year’s time, you may see the fourteenth installment of this annual tradition. But for today, let’s score ourselves one last time on last year’s predictions and make three new ones for 2014.
2012’s Predictions for 2013
Cloudwashing reaches a level of desperation. We predicted increasing levels of obfuscation relating to vendors’ supposed Cloud offerings, as well as condemnations of Public Clouds and a few vendor flameouts. We’ll give ourselves a full point on this one. Yes, there’s no question that the vendors and service providers in the Cloud marketplace have made great strides in putting together real offerings that actually work. But the fact remains that there is more smoke and mirrors than ever. Furthermore, the stories of turmoil at key vendors have colored the Cloud marketplace, as the likes of VMware, Dell, and Oracle continue to reorganize internally and revamp marketing externally to grasp the brass ring as the carousel goes around ever faster. And as for vendor flameouts? One word: Nirvanix.
Next generation SOA begins to coalesce. As organizations move away from heavyweight, middleware-centric, first generation SOA, they look forward to lightweight, RESTful, Cloud-friendly approaches to SOA that redefine the role Services play in the enterprise. ZapThink nailed this one as well, only the new catchphrase for next-generation SOA is the API Economy. Today’s definition of API, after all, is an update of the notion of Service, where the added bits are those next-generation aspects that make today’s APIs lightweight and Cloud-friendly. Are we concerned people don’t call the API Economy SOA? Of course not. As I’ve said for years in the Licensed ZapThink Architect course, it doesn’t matter what you call it, what matters is that you’re using the right tool to solve the problems of the business.
Cyber-9/11: some kind of Cyberattack so remarkable and unexpected that it changes the way the world looks at the ongoing Cyberwar. We’re going out on a limb of sorts to give ourselves 100% on this one as well, even though the event that qualifies wasn’t the kind of Cyber-9/11 we were expecting: the NSA spying scandal. I must admit that I didn’t foresee the US government as the perpetrator, but we predicted an unexpected attack, and the NSA news was unquestionably unexpected. And there’s no doubt that Edward Snowden’s revelations about the extent of the NSA’s shenanigans has changed the way the world looks at Cybersecurity.
ZapThink’s Predictions for 2014
Three for three: a perfect score! Perhaps our crystal ball didn’t take enough risks. Well, I won’t be the one reviewing the score in twelve months, so there’s no reason not to give the old ball a little extra polish.
OpenStack will implode. Yes, the OpenStack initiative has many different projects that must work together seamlessly. Yes, the OpenStack team is unusually large for an open source effort, with an eclectic mix of large and small players. But it’s not the ambitiousness of the initiative nor “too many chefs” problem that will do OpenStack in. Instead, I predict that it will succumb to a kind of innovation paralysis.
Many of OpenStack’s core architectural decisions were made quite early in the maturation of Cloud Computing. The team has committed perhaps millions of lines of code in the intervening time. But the Cloud hasn’t been waiting, as innovation in other areas continues at a rapid pace. It’s just a matter of time before the OpenStack digerati lift their eyes from their keyboards and look around, and see that perhaps it makes sense to build a Cloud orchestration platform quite differently than what OpenStack will have become.
Innovation doesn’t happen in straight lines. It involves false starts and dead ends, new ideas triumphing over old, only to be vanquished in turn by further rounds of even better ideas. OpenStack hasn’t weathered this storm of innovation sufficiently. How to build something better than OpenStack? We may not have the answer yet, but rest assured, someone will come up with one or two soon.
Next-generation PaaS will coalesce. As the least mature of the three core Cloud service models, Platform-as-a-Service is a tumultuous marketplace. The players in this space, from Salesforce Heroku to Google App Engine to Dell Boomi, offer a remarkable diversity of features and capabilities. But they all suffer from the “horseless carriage” syndrome: taking an existing approach and sticking it in the Cloud. Take development, stick it in the Cloud. Take QA and deployment, stick them in the Cloud. Take integration, or perhaps B2B integration, put it in the Cloud as well.
In contrast, what characterizes next-generation PaaS are offerings that are fundamentally different from corresponding on-premise offerings, if calling out such a correspondence is a coherent notion in the first place. Completely rework the notion of integration by leveraging the Cloud. Turn the world of Business Process Management on its head with the Cloud. Rewrite the book on Master Data Management with the Cloud. Or better yet: how about all three at once?
Once again, Cyber-9/11. Yes, the NSA revelations were unexpected and transformative. But I’m still waiting for that offensive Cyberattack, one so devastating and unexpected that it shifts government policies across the globe and throws traditional private sector Cybersecurity measures into chaos. Will 2014 be the year of this event? Perhaps, perhaps not. But if you’re not prepared for an imminent Cyber-9/11, then you’re simply not prepared at all.
The ZapThink Take
What to put in the final paragraph I write as ZapThink, after a dozen years? Thank yous, of course.
Thanks first to Ron Schmelzer, ZapThink founder and partner for ZapThink’s first decade, for such a wild ride. Thanks as well to Paul Leslie, Dov and Elma Levy, and the rest of the folks at Dovel Technologies, for giving ZapThink a good home and for simply being such decent people. Thanks to the over 1,700 Licensed ZapThink Architects and hundreds of other students who took our classes over the years. Thanks to our clients for trusting us to give you good advice and plenty of tough love when you deserved it. And last but definitely not least, thank you to all the people who pinned our posters on your walls, all the readers of this ZapFlash and our other thought leadership, simply for giving us your attention! We couldn’t have done it without you.
Image credit: Mark Skipper
The 3rd International Internet of @ThingsExpo, co-located with the 16th International Cloud Expo - to be held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY - announces that its Call for Papers is now open. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the biggest idea since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago.
Nov. 28, 2014 10:00 AM EST Reads: 1,744
15th Cloud Expo, which took place Nov. 4-6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, expanded the conference content of @ThingsExpo, Big Data Expo, and DevOps Summit to include two developer events. IBM held a Bluemix Developer Playground on November 5 and ElasticBox held a Hackathon on November 6. Both events took place on the expo floor. The Bluemix Developer Playground, for developers of all levels, highlighted the ease of use of Bluemix, its services and functionalit...
Nov. 27, 2014 07:00 PM EST Reads: 2,007
"We help companies that are using a lot of Software as a Service. We help companies manage and gain visibility into what people are using inside the company and decide to secure them or use standards to lock down or to embrace the adoption of SaaS inside the company," explained Scott Kriz, Co-founder and CEO of Bitium, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Nov. 27, 2014 07:00 PM EST Reads: 1,889
Some developers believe that monitoring is a function of the operations team. Some operations teams firmly believe that monitoring the systems they maintain is sufficient to run the business successfully. Most of them are wrong. The complexity of today's applications have gone far and beyond the capabilities of "traditional" system-level monitoring tools and approaches and requires much broader knowledge of business and applications as a whole. The goal of DevOps is to connect all aspects of app...
Nov. 27, 2014 06:00 PM EST Reads: 1,755
The 4th International DevOps Summit, co-located with16th International Cloud Expo – being held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY – announces that its Call for Papers is now open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the world's large...
Nov. 27, 2014 06:00 PM EST Reads: 2,334
SAP is delivering break-through innovation combined with fantastic user experience powered by the market-leading in-memory technology, SAP HANA. In his General Session at 15th Cloud Expo, Thorsten Leiduck, VP ISVs & Digital Commerce, SAP, discussed how SAP and partners provide cloud and hybrid cloud solutions as well as real-time Big Data offerings that help companies of all sizes and industries run better. SAP launched an application challenge to award the most innovative SAP HANA and SAP HANA...
Nov. 27, 2014 05:00 PM EST Reads: 1,721
Want to enable self-service provisioning of application environments in minutes that mirror production? Can you automatically provide rich data with code-level detail back to the developers when issues occur in production? In his session at DevOps Summit, David Tesar, Microsoft Technical Evangelist on Microsoft Azure and DevOps, will discuss how to accomplish this and more utilizing technologies such as Microsoft Azure, Visual Studio online, and Application Insights in this demo-heavy session.
Nov. 27, 2014 04:45 PM EST Reads: 1,716
When an enterprise builds a hybrid IaaS cloud connecting its data center to one or more public clouds, security is often a major topic along with the other challenges involved. Security is closely intertwined with the networking choices made for the hybrid cloud. Traditional networking approaches for building a hybrid cloud try to kludge together the enterprise infrastructure with the public cloud. Consequently this approach requires risky, deep "surgery" including changes to firewalls, subnets...
Nov. 27, 2014 04:45 PM EST Reads: 1,967
DevOps is all about agility. However, you don't want to be on a high-speed bus to nowhere. The right DevOps approach controls velocity with a tight feedback loop that not only consists of operational data but also incorporates business context. With a business context in the decision making, the right business priorities are incorporated, which results in a higher value creation. In his session at DevOps Summit, Todd Rader, Solutions Architect at AppDynamics, discussed key monitoring techniques...
Nov. 27, 2014 04:30 PM EST Reads: 1,882
Cultural, regulatory, environmental, political and economic (CREPE) conditions over the past decade are creating cross-industry solution spaces that require processes and technologies from both the Internet of Things (IoT), and Data Management and Analytics (DMA). These solution spaces are evolving into Sensor Analytics Ecosystems (SAE) that represent significant new opportunities for organizations of all types. Public Utilities throughout the world, providing electricity, natural gas and water,...
Nov. 27, 2014 04:00 PM EST Reads: 1,963
The security devil is always in the details of the attack: the ones you've endured, the ones you prepare yourself to fend off, and the ones that, you fear, will catch you completely unaware and defenseless. The Internet of Things (IoT) is nothing if not an endless proliferation of details. It's the vision of a world in which continuous Internet connectivity and addressability is embedded into a growing range of human artifacts, into the natural world, and even into our smartphones, appliances, a...
Nov. 27, 2014 04:00 PM EST Reads: 2,062
How do APIs and IoT relate? The answer is not as simple as merely adding an API on top of a dumb device, but rather about understanding the architectural patterns for implementing an IoT fabric. There are typically two or three trends: Exposing the device to a management framework Exposing that management framework to a business centric logic Exposing that business layer and data to end users. This last trend is the IoT stack, which involves a new shift in the separation of what stuff happe...
Nov. 27, 2014 03:00 PM EST Reads: 2,074
The Internet of Things is tied together with a thin strand that is known as time. Coincidentally, at the core of nearly all data analytics is a timestamp. When working with time series data there are a few core principles that everyone should consider, especially across datasets where time is the common boundary. In his session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, Jim Scott, Director of Enterprise Strategy & Architecture at MapR Technologies, discussed single-value, geo-spatial, and log time series dat...
Nov. 27, 2014 03:00 PM EST Reads: 2,220
An entirely new security model is needed for the Internet of Things, or is it? Can we save some old and tested controls for this new and different environment? In his session at @ThingsExpo, New York's at the Javits Center, Davi Ottenheimer, EMC Senior Director of Trust, reviewed hands-on lessons with IoT devices and reveal a new risk balance you might not expect. Davi Ottenheimer, EMC Senior Director of Trust, has more than nineteen years' experience managing global security operations and asse...
Nov. 27, 2014 01:00 PM EST Reads: 2,121
The Internet of Things will greatly expand the opportunities for data collection and new business models driven off of that data. In her session at @ThingsExpo, Esmeralda Swartz, CMO of MetraTech, discussed how for this to be effective you not only need to have infrastructure and operational models capable of utilizing this new phenomenon, but increasingly service providers will need to convince a skeptical public to participate. Get ready to show them the money!
Nov. 27, 2014 11:00 AM EST Reads: 1,945
SYS-CON Media announced that Centrify, a provider of unified identity management across cloud, mobile and data center environments that delivers single sign-on (SSO) for users and a simplified identity infrastructure for IT, has launched an ad campaign on Cloud Computing Journal. The ads focus on security: how an organization can successfully control privilege for all of the organization’s identities to mitigate identity-related risk without slowing down the business, and how Centrify provides ...
Nov. 27, 2014 10:00 AM EST Reads: 1,783
The Internet of Things will put IT to its ultimate test by creating infinite new opportunities to digitize products and services, generate and analyze new data to improve customer satisfaction, and discover new ways to gain a competitive advantage across nearly every industry. In order to help corporate business units to capitalize on the rapidly evolving IoT opportunities, IT must stand up to a new set of challenges. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Jeff Kaplan, Managing Director of THINKstrateg...
Nov. 27, 2014 10:00 AM EST Reads: 1,939
"SAP had made a big transition into the cloud as we believe it has significant value for our customers, drives innovation and is easy to consume. When you look at the SAP portfolio, SAP HANA is the underlying platform and it powers all of our platforms and all of our analytics," explained Thorsten Leiduck, VP ISVs & Digital Commerce at SAP, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4-6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Nov. 27, 2014 08:15 AM EST Reads: 1,644
One of the biggest challenges when developing connected devices is identifying user value and delivering it through successful user experiences. In his session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, Mike Kuniavsky, Principal Scientist, Innovation Services at PARC, described an IoT-specific approach to user experience design that combines approaches from interaction design, industrial design and service design to create experiences that go beyond simple connected gadgets to create lasting, multi-device exp...
Nov. 27, 2014 08:00 AM EST Reads: 1,918
Enthusiasm for the Internet of Things has reached an all-time high. In 2013 alone, venture capitalists spent more than $1 billion dollars investing in the IoT space. With "smart" appliances and devices, IoT covers wearable smart devices, cloud services to hardware companies. Nest, a Google company, detects temperatures inside homes and automatically adjusts it by tracking its user's habit. These technologies are quickly developing and with it come challenges such as bridging infrastructure gaps,...
Nov. 27, 2014 07:45 AM EST Reads: 2,041