|By Jason Bloomberg||
|December 20, 2013 10:00 AM EST||
At last, the moment has arrived: the thirteenth and final installment of ZapThink’s annual retrospective and predictions written by one of ZapThink’s original members. ZapThink will live on as a division of Dovel Technologies, and I will continue my thought leadership at an as yet unselected opportunity, so in a year’s time, you may see the fourteenth installment of this annual tradition. But for today, let’s score ourselves one last time on last year’s predictions and make three new ones for 2014.
2012’s Predictions for 2013
Cloudwashing reaches a level of desperation. We predicted increasing levels of obfuscation relating to vendors’ supposed Cloud offerings, as well as condemnations of Public Clouds and a few vendor flameouts. We’ll give ourselves a full point on this one. Yes, there’s no question that the vendors and service providers in the Cloud marketplace have made great strides in putting together real offerings that actually work. But the fact remains that there is more smoke and mirrors than ever. Furthermore, the stories of turmoil at key vendors have colored the Cloud marketplace, as the likes of VMware, Dell, and Oracle continue to reorganize internally and revamp marketing externally to grasp the brass ring as the carousel goes around ever faster. And as for vendor flameouts? One word: Nirvanix.
Next generation SOA begins to coalesce. As organizations move away from heavyweight, middleware-centric, first generation SOA, they look forward to lightweight, RESTful, Cloud-friendly approaches to SOA that redefine the role Services play in the enterprise. ZapThink nailed this one as well, only the new catchphrase for next-generation SOA is the API Economy. Today’s definition of API, after all, is an update of the notion of Service, where the added bits are those next-generation aspects that make today’s APIs lightweight and Cloud-friendly. Are we concerned people don’t call the API Economy SOA? Of course not. As I’ve said for years in the Licensed ZapThink Architect course, it doesn’t matter what you call it, what matters is that you’re using the right tool to solve the problems of the business.
Cyber-9/11: some kind of Cyberattack so remarkable and unexpected that it changes the way the world looks at the ongoing Cyberwar. We’re going out on a limb of sorts to give ourselves 100% on this one as well, even though the event that qualifies wasn’t the kind of Cyber-9/11 we were expecting: the NSA spying scandal. I must admit that I didn’t foresee the US government as the perpetrator, but we predicted an unexpected attack, and the NSA news was unquestionably unexpected. And there’s no doubt that Edward Snowden’s revelations about the extent of the NSA’s shenanigans has changed the way the world looks at Cybersecurity.
ZapThink’s Predictions for 2014
Three for three: a perfect score! Perhaps our crystal ball didn’t take enough risks. Well, I won’t be the one reviewing the score in twelve months, so there’s no reason not to give the old ball a little extra polish.
OpenStack will implode. Yes, the OpenStack initiative has many different projects that must work together seamlessly. Yes, the OpenStack team is unusually large for an open source effort, with an eclectic mix of large and small players. But it’s not the ambitiousness of the initiative nor “too many chefs” problem that will do OpenStack in. Instead, I predict that it will succumb to a kind of innovation paralysis.
Many of OpenStack’s core architectural decisions were made quite early in the maturation of Cloud Computing. The team has committed perhaps millions of lines of code in the intervening time. But the Cloud hasn’t been waiting, as innovation in other areas continues at a rapid pace. It’s just a matter of time before the OpenStack digerati lift their eyes from their keyboards and look around, and see that perhaps it makes sense to build a Cloud orchestration platform quite differently than what OpenStack will have become.
Innovation doesn’t happen in straight lines. It involves false starts and dead ends, new ideas triumphing over old, only to be vanquished in turn by further rounds of even better ideas. OpenStack hasn’t weathered this storm of innovation sufficiently. How to build something better than OpenStack? We may not have the answer yet, but rest assured, someone will come up with one or two soon.
Next-generation PaaS will coalesce. As the least mature of the three core Cloud service models, Platform-as-a-Service is a tumultuous marketplace. The players in this space, from Salesforce Heroku to Google App Engine to Dell Boomi, offer a remarkable diversity of features and capabilities. But they all suffer from the “horseless carriage” syndrome: taking an existing approach and sticking it in the Cloud. Take development, stick it in the Cloud. Take QA and deployment, stick them in the Cloud. Take integration, or perhaps B2B integration, put it in the Cloud as well.
In contrast, what characterizes next-generation PaaS are offerings that are fundamentally different from corresponding on-premise offerings, if calling out such a correspondence is a coherent notion in the first place. Completely rework the notion of integration by leveraging the Cloud. Turn the world of Business Process Management on its head with the Cloud. Rewrite the book on Master Data Management with the Cloud. Or better yet: how about all three at once?
Once again, Cyber-9/11. Yes, the NSA revelations were unexpected and transformative. But I’m still waiting for that offensive Cyberattack, one so devastating and unexpected that it shifts government policies across the globe and throws traditional private sector Cybersecurity measures into chaos. Will 2014 be the year of this event? Perhaps, perhaps not. But if you’re not prepared for an imminent Cyber-9/11, then you’re simply not prepared at all.
The ZapThink Take
What to put in the final paragraph I write as ZapThink, after a dozen years? Thank yous, of course.
Thanks first to Ron Schmelzer, ZapThink founder and partner for ZapThink’s first decade, for such a wild ride. Thanks as well to Paul Leslie, Dov and Elma Levy, and the rest of the folks at Dovel Technologies, for giving ZapThink a good home and for simply being such decent people. Thanks to the over 1,700 Licensed ZapThink Architects and hundreds of other students who took our classes over the years. Thanks to our clients for trusting us to give you good advice and plenty of tough love when you deserved it. And last but definitely not least, thank you to all the people who pinned our posters on your walls, all the readers of this ZapFlash and our other thought leadership, simply for giving us your attention! We couldn’t have done it without you.
Image credit: Mark Skipper
Performance is the intersection of power, agility, control, and choice. If you value performance, and more specifically consistent performance, you need to look beyond simple virtualized compute. Many factors need to be considered to create a truly performant environment. In their General Session at 15th Cloud Expo, Phil Jackson, Development Community Advocate at SoftLayer, and Harold Hannon, Sr. Software Architect at SoftLayer, to discuss how to take advantage of a multitude of compute option...
Sep. 25, 2014 03:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,815
Come learn about what you need to consider when moving your data to the cloud. In her session at 15th Cloud Expo, Skyla Loomis, a Program Director of Cloudant Development at Cloudant, will discuss the security, performance, and operational implications of keeping your data on premise, moving it to the cloud, or taking a hybrid approach. She will use real customer examples to illustrate the tradeoffs, key decision points, and how to be successful with a cloud or hybrid cloud solution.
Sep. 22, 2014 10:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,367
In today's application economy, enterprise organizations realize that it's their applications that are the heart and soul of their business. If their application users have a bad experience, their revenue and reputation are at stake. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Anand Akela, Senior Director of Product Marketing for Application Performance Management at CA Technologies, will discuss how a user-centric Application Performance Management solution can help inspire your users with every appli...
Sep. 22, 2014 03:30 PM EDT Reads: 2,009
With the explosion of the cloud, more businesses are transitioning to a recurring revenue model to generate reliable sales, grow profits, and open new markets. This opportunity requires businesses to get to market quickly with the pricing and packaging options customers want. In addition, you will want to take advantage of the ensuing tidal wave of data to more effectively upsell, cross-sell and manage your customers. All of this is possible, but only with the right approach. At 15th Cloud Exp...
Sep. 12, 2014 11:45 PM EDT Reads: 1,513
Planning scalable environments isn't terribly difficult, but it does require a change of perspective. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Phil Jackson, Development Community Advocate for SoftLayer, will broaden your views to think on an Internet scale by dissecting a video publishing application built with The SoftLayer Platform, Message Queuing, Object Storage, and Drupal. By examining a scalable modular application build that can handle unpredictable traffic, attendees will able to grow your de...
Sep. 12, 2014 11:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,815
The cloud provides an easy onramp to building and deploying Big Data solutions. Transitioning from initial deployment to large-scale, highly performant operations may not be as easy. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Harold Hannon, Sr. Software Architect at SoftLayer, will discuss the benefits, weaknesses, and performance characteristics of public and bare metal cloud deployments that can help you make the right decisions.
Sep. 11, 2014 10:30 PM EDT Reads: 2,295
Over the last few years the healthcare ecosystem has revolved around innovations in Electronic Health Record (HER) based systems. This evolution has helped us achieve much desired interoperability. Now the focus is shifting to other equally important aspects – scalability and performance. While applying cloud computing environments to the EHR systems, a special consideration needs to be given to the cloud enablement of Veterans Health Information Systems and Technology Architecture (VistA), i.e....
Sep. 10, 2014 06:30 PM EDT Reads: 3,694
Cloud and Big Data present unique dilemmas: embracing the benefits of these new technologies while maintaining the security of your organization’s assets. When an outside party owns, controls and manages your infrastructure and computational resources, how can you be assured that sensitive data remains private and secure? How do you best protect data in mixed use cloud and big data infrastructure sets? Can you still satisfy the full range of reporting, compliance and regulatory requirements? I...
Sep. 10, 2014 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,791
Scott Jenson leads a project called The Physical Web within the Chrome team at Google. Project members are working to take the scalability and openness of the web and use it to talk to the exponentially exploding range of smart devices. Nearly every company today working on the IoT comes up with the same basic solution: use my server and you'll be fine. But if we really believe there will be trillions of these devices, that just can't scale. We need a system that is open a scalable and by using...
Sep. 6, 2014 06:45 PM EDT Reads: 5,098
Is your organization struggling to deal with skyrocketing volumes of digital assets? The amount of data is growing exponentially and organizations are having a hard time managing this growth. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Amar Kapadia, Senior Director of Open Cloud Strategy at Seagate, will walk through the essential considerations when developing a cloud storage strategy. In this discussion, you will understand the challenges IT is facing, why companies need to move to cloud, and how the...
Sep. 6, 2014 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,812
If cloud computing benefits are so clear, why have so few enterprises migrated their mission-critical apps? The answer is often inertia and FUD. No one ever got fired for not moving to the cloud – not yet. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Michael Hoch, SVP, Cloud Advisory Service at Virtustream, will discuss the six key steps to justify and execute your MCA cloud migration.
Sep. 6, 2014 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,837
The 16th International Cloud Expo announces that its Call for Papers is now open. 16th International Cloud Expo, to be held June 9–11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City brings together Cloud Computing, APM, APIs, Security, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding business opportunity. Submit your speak...
Sep. 5, 2014 02:15 PM EDT Reads: 3,027
Most of today’s hardware manufacturers are building servers with at least one SATA Port, but not every systems engineer utilizes them. This is considered a loss in the game of maximizing potential storage space in a fixed unit. The SATADOM Series was created by Innodisk as a high-performance, small form factor boot drive with low power consumption to be plugged into the unused SATA port on your server board as an alternative to hard drive or USB boot-up. Built for 1U systems, this powerful devic...
Sep. 4, 2014 07:15 PM EDT Reads: 9,061
SYS-CON Events announced today that Gridstore™, the leader in software-defined storage (SDS) purpose-built for Windows Servers and Hyper-V, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Gridstore™ is the leader in software-defined storage purpose built for virtualization that is designed to accelerate applications in virtualized environments. Using its patented Server-Side Virtual C...
Sep. 4, 2014 01:45 PM EDT Reads: 2,382
SYS-CON Events announced today that Cloudian, Inc., the leading provider of hybrid cloud storage solutions, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Cloudian is a Foster City, Calif.-based software company specializing in cloud storage. Cloudian HyperStore® is an S3-compatible cloud object storage platform that enables service providers and enterprises to bui...
Sep. 3, 2014 07:00 PM EDT Reads: 3,301
SYS-CON Events announced today that TechXtend (formerly Programmer’s Paradise), a leading value-added provider of server and storage virtualization, and r-evolution will exhibit at SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. TechXtend (formerly Programmer’s Paradise) is a leading value-added provider of software, systems and solutions for corporations, government organizations, and academic instit...
Sep. 3, 2014 01:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,580
Every healthy ecosystem is diverse. This is especially true in cloud ecosystems, where portability and interoperability are more important than old enterprise models of proprietary ownership. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Mark Baker, Server Product Manager at Canonical/Ubuntu, will discuss how single vendors used to take the lead in creating and delivering technology, but in a cloud economy, where users want tools of their preference, when and where they need them, it makes no sense.
Sep. 3, 2014 09:00 AM EDT Reads: 2,660
The emergence of cloud computing and Big Data warrants a greater role for the PMO to successfully manage enterprise transformation driven by these powerful trends. As the adoption of cloud-based services continues to grow, a governance model is needed to orchestrate enterprise cloud implementations and harness the power of Big Data analytics. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Mahesh Singh, President of BigData, Inc., to discuss how the Enterprise PMO takes center stage not only in developing th...
Sep. 2, 2014 11:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,979
The consumption economy is here and so are cloud applications and solutions that offer more than subscription and flat fee models and at the same time are available on a pure consumption model, which not only reduces IT spend but also lowers infrastructure costs, and offers ease of use and availability. In their session at 15th Cloud Expo, Ermanno Bonifazi, CEO & Founder of Solgenia, and Ian Khan, Global Strategic Positioning & Brand Manager at Solgenia, will discuss this shifting dynamic with ...
Sep. 2, 2014 11:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,522
Cloud computing started a technology revolution; now DevOps is driving that revolution forward. By enabling new approaches to service delivery, cloud and DevOps together are delivering even greater speed, agility, and efficiency. No wonder leading innovators are adopting DevOps and cloud together! In his session at DevOps Summit, Andi Mann, Vice President of Strategic Solutions at CA Technologies, will explore the synergies in these two approaches, with practical tips, techniques, research dat...
Sep. 2, 2014 02:30 PM EDT Reads: 3,821