"It''s all about write once, run anywhere".
yeah right. I''m a java developer and its more write once, test everywhere.

Microsoft and Windows are on the brink of extinction. The more and more MS pulls java out of its domain, the more and more it will get isolated and that is exactly the paradigm of reverse phsycology that SUN is playing here.

It is no longer the internet that matters, it is what you can do with it via JAVA that matters. Without JAVA Microsoft nor its windows OS will not survive.

Neither MS or Windows can handle the pervasiveness of computing without rebooting every push/pull transaction.

I predict Java will struggle on the desk top and stay about the same on the server for the next 2 years. There is nothing I see other than better IDE''s from Sun, Borland, & Oracle to promote it''s growth. But that will not help it stay in any Windows environment. I wonder what happens when MS digs in with more .net in it''s client side office products. It will boil down to who will want to use Java in a Windows network. If it wasn''t for the internet, MS would have probly rid java out of its domain all together leaving it for older Unix systems that aren''t retired yet. Internet development may be Java''s only life saver.

Yea, but what about microsoft and the MS OS?

I''d love Java to have impact on the desktop. Unfortunately, that''s not going to happen at Sun. Where would it make the most sense? My bet: Apple! Why? Apple would love to see more desktop applications that would run happily on the Mac as well as else where (Linux, Sun, Windows).

So the big picture evolves: Java Desktop/Applications == Apple, Java Server/Services == Sun.

Make the wires go away. In as much your are in the business of helping "make the wires" go away (wireless), then I think your heading in the right direction. The next revolution isn''t about the computer ... it''s about the connection. The system and it''s OS are now just a layer to build upon. They need to be cheap, simple & connected. Eventually many homes will have both a media server & and data server. The media/entertainment server will access, store and play movies/tv/radio/music/photos. The data server will store your documents. You''ll have multiple laptop/table computers hooked into your wireless home network to control and access these two servers. Tivo is the intial example of the media/entertainment server. All these devices will have access to broadband through your cable modem wirelessly.

The media server needs to be bullet proof ... it can''t run MS buggy bloated software. It can''t be proporietary because many manufacturers will build these things. Linus is king here.

One big problem that we have is all of the millions of unsecure windows 98 system hooked to the net that are easy pickens for virus writers to create major network havoc.

Suns problem is that it was created to sell specialized hardward. Unix was the OS they happened to put on it. It was the Hardware that made McNeely rich, not UNIX.

Now that Linux can run on cheap and powerful Pentium boxes .. who needs sun? Sure you need someone to coordinate it all ... that is what IBM does. So Sun has become a defacto standards committee for Java ... that is not a business.

Some idiot will buy Sun to get at the customer base ala Compac & DEC.

Ha Ha. Go after Bill with what? Java Desktop running on Oracle? You got to be kidding. Leave the going after Bill to Linux. It will just happen. And I just hope Oracle and Java do the great things they do even better!

Lets get real here. Sun will keep dropping (as will everyone else) and end up having to merge with someone to stay alive. I predict that Oracle gives up on PeopleSoft so it can buy Sun. Then Larry and Scott can really go after Bill.

Nothing earthshaking here. It is too bad Java was not a success. That would have counterbalanced MS more. I see more proliferation of disparate technologies as continuing owing to the "heat-seeking" nature of the industry and its players. "Let me count the ways" of doing nearly anything in IT!

yikes, he is way off on #5. Company''s can not afford to start all over from scratch, that would cost far too much & the legacy code that works is far to risky to replace day one. What we will see is a huge movement to modernize legacy applications with tools from software makers like IBM, Microsoft, & niche players. IBM has a product called HATS that will take a legacy application & turn it into a Java application with little to know Java skills needed. That is the type of change you will see in 2004 because company''s can''t afford to rewrite & it is much more affordable to modernize to keep the years of excellent logic in the underlying code. His dream would be like bulldozing every house down & building a new one from scratch.

Just Scott''s opportunity to make oblique slams against MS Windows operating systems. Most Java is run under operating systems. The embedded stuff is growing but not on a level of scale Scott would have you believe. The Socialist nations in Europe probably love the Java card, but freedom-loving Americans will see it as an attempt by the gov''t to control yet another aspect of their lives.

Wow Scooter, how visionary for 1990 or so.
My prediction: either Fujitsu buys you out or your stockholders hold you in the regard that DEC bagholders fondly esteem Bob Palmer (or both).

It is true that Scott is not an independent consultant so we cannot expect an unbiased view. On the other hand, I am quite certain that he is steering Sun in the direction he believes the future will go and not in the opposite direction. A company like Sun can go in quite a number of different directions. So this is a possible vision - usually wildly optimistic, but it is certainly more attractive than saying "A single software company will own and control everything that happens in the software world, everything will remain essentially the same, but you will need new computers to keep it running. Whoever dares develop software outside of this framework will be branded a Communist/Terrorist and taken to court ... brrr"

Some of them sound like Scott is plugging Sun and Java, rather than making realistic, unbiased predictions. I agree with 3 and 5.
2 may or may not be right, can''t say.
I disagree with 1 and 4. Smart Cards may be accepted in Europe and some parts of SE Asia, but the reach is *nowhere* near as wide as is required to validate his statements.
4 seems like just an attempt to sell Sun's systems.

A good revolutionary vision of things to come from the Scott a true unconventional thought leader!

Predictions? Or merely an advertisement for SUN/Java. I might agree with his comments but surely Scott could have spent more time researching trends and putting together some meaningful real predictions rather than just beating the Java drum.

and the number one prediction:
1. Java will be released to the Open Source Community.