Click here to close now.

Welcome!

@CloudExpo Authors: Bart Copeland, Elizabeth White, Ed Featherston, Tom Lounibos, Pat Romanski

Related Topics: @CloudExpo

@CloudExpo: Article

i-Technology Predictions for 2009

2009 Will Be The Year of Cloud Computing; Cassatt CEO warns: "But remember, it's only Cloud 1.0. There's still work to do."

Industry Leaders Discuss the Future of Cloud Computing - Click Here To Enjoy SYS-CON's Cloud-Specific Predictions Round-up

Every year SYS-CON polls selected members of the the Internet technologies (i-Technology) community and asks them to share their thoughts on what's around the corner in the world of i-Technology and Web-based enterprise. The main consensual themes this year were very clear. Cassatt Corporation's visionary CEO Bill Coleman, for example - famous in a former life for being the 'B' in BEA Systems - is adamant that 2009 is going to be The Year of Cloud. Belt-tightening by major IT-spenders not surprisingly was another recurring theme.

As early as 2004 Cassatt was outlining a roadmap to deliver on the promise of automating IT operations for on-demand computing and currently its angle, Cloud Computing-wise, is to focus not on public or external clouds but on 'Internal Clouds' so it's hardly surprising that The Cloud features in Coleman's set of predictions.

WILLIAM T. COLEMAN III, Chairman & CEO, Cassatt Corporation

Prediction #1: In 2009, it's all about "the cloud." Save money, move fast, and…ooops. Expect some problems. But remember, it's only Cloud 1.0. There's still work to do. Oh, and virtualization alone is not enough to make it all work.

Prediction #2: Google is the biggest and the best on the Net, but there is one problem: the whole world isn't just an ad. In 2009, Google meets the real world. Sorry, Google, but it's tough to have to compete when you are only the Yellow Pages.

Prediction #3: Social Networking. The world will discover in 2009 that "Wow, it really is a platform." It's my life, but on the network with my "friends." It really is who I am. Now we have to figure out if it can be monetized. Which, of course, means we'll see overinvestment in unproven business models in 2009, leading to another "bust" down the line.

Prediction #4: In 2009, identity becomes the fulcrum of security issues. It's an issue we finally realize that we have to solve, or we can expect a serious cyber-meltdown.


VIK CHAUDHARY, Vice President of Product Management and Corporate Development, Keynote Systems

Prediction: In 2009 millions of new programmers will enter the software industry.

Here's the basis for Chaudhary's prediction.

"In the 1980s, the software industry moved from mainframe computing to PC computing. Companies like Microsoft sprang up, creating software development tools that spawned a whole generation of programmers. Programmers didn't need to learn arcane programming languages like Cobol, or even have to master languages like C or C++ - they could program in 4GL languages like Visual Basic and SQLWindows. At this point, legions of programmers entered the workforce, as the bar to build applications was lowered.

In the 1990s, the same thing happened with programming languages like HTML and JavaScript, making it far easier for someone to build web sites and applications. In the 2000s, with cloud computing making it easy for programmers to build applications and allowing someone else deploy and manage them, there will be a new generation of programmers who focus on the application and less on the infrastructure. And it just gets easier and easier to be a programmer!"

The next set of speculations on the future come from industry veteran Jnan Dash.

JNAN DASH, Chief Strategy Officer, Curl

"Given the economic crisis and recession, there is belt-tightening by major IT-spenders," Dash says. "So what technologies will win? Anything that helps in cost savings. When the top line (a.k.a. revenue) stops growing, companies will attack the bottom line (a.k.a. cost)."

Here is his prediction for 2009:

"The much anticipated switch to web platform from client-server will start to take off in 2009. Call it enterprise RIA if you like. The question is not whether one should use Curl, or Flex or Silverlight. That's the wrong end of the argument - adopting technology for the sake of technology. The key question is - how do you justify such application modernization?

With over 400 enterprise class customers we have a lot of actual examples of Curl implementations providing real business savings. Unfortunately the details of these examples are mostly company confidential. Recently we have been detailing possible business savings based real customer cases but using example data. We find this helps in getting the discussion going on what the opportunity for savings could be. Here are three examples:

  • Better Performance -The current application takes 90 seconds to perform a complex data visualization. If 1,000 employees perform this operation 50 times per day this is 1250 hours of wait time per day. If the visualization time is reduced to 1 second this saves 300,000 hours per year and at $20/hour that is more than $6M/year!
  • Better Visualization - The current process to find error patterns in operational data takes 60 minutes and the department of 100 employees whose job it is to identify and fix these errors typically finds 600 errors a day. If good data visualization can reduce the time to find one error pattern to 10 minutes this would save 500 hours per day or 130,000 hours per year. At $20 per hour this is $2.6M in savings per year!
  • Support Cost - The current client-server application must be updated 6 times a year to 10,000 users. Each update costs $5 in distribution and material costs and 15 minutes of end user time. A Web application would eliminate this cost and save approximately $600,000 a year."


CHRIS FLECK, VP of Solutions Development and Community Evangelism, Citrix Systems

Prediction #1: The iPhone goes Enterprise - The iPhone will gain rapid adoption in the Enterprise driven by user demands including executives, road warriors, and knowledge workers asking for access to any app ( including windows apps ) from anywhere. IT will increasingly support the effort based on new improved security capabilities and productivity gains ( including for themselves ).

Prediction #2: Corporate issued laptop model will be challenged - Companies looking to provide access to day extenders without the full expense and maintenance of a company laptop will increasingly adopt application delivery infrastructure like XenApp that can provide safe IT hosted application access from un-trusted personal PC’s. In addition, companies will begin to pilot the BYOC ( Bring Your Own Computer ) model for knowledge workers seeking personal choice while reducing IT expense and support costs.

Prediction #3: Virtual Desktops grow beyond a niche - Improvements in user experience capabilities of VDI solutions combined with the reduced support cost model will drive increased adoption of VDI beyond the initial niche deployments.

Prediction #4: IaaS Cloud Providers are no longer just for web startups - The recent Windows offering by Amazon will validate the IaaS ( Infrastructure as a Service ) model as a viable platform for companies small and large looking to add test and targeted production capacity without capital and facility costs.

Prediction #5: Netbooks drive Servers, Clouds and Linux clients - The rapid adoption of Netbooks based on low cost and light weight convenience will increase the desire to run server hosted apps ( Web and Windows ). A significant number of the new mini laptops will be used for occasional use vs a primary PC which makes maintaining local apps and synchronizing data problematic. This in turn will help break the traditional model of running Windows apps installed on PCs and laptops.


Industry Leaders Discuss the Future of Cloud Computing - Click Here To Enjoy SYS-CON's Cloud-Specific Predictions Round-up


SCOTT LOWE, Blogger and Senior Engineer with ePlus

Prediction #1 - On virtualization: In 2009 we will see virtualization market leader VMware finally take the wraps off some very technologically advanced functionality, but growth will be much harder to come by than in previous years. Microsoft will gain market share at VMware's expense as the hypervisor increasingly becomes commoditized and moves closer and closer to being just a part of the server's firmware. I predict Citrix will continue to remain in 3rd place out of the three major virtualization vendors; their only bright spot will be VDI.

Prediction #2 - On cloud computing: Consumers will increasingly adopt cloud computing services, but enterprises will remain wary of moving applications into the cloud until some open standards around interoperability get finalized and adopted by the major vendors. Service providers will be forced to embrace multiple cloud computing platforms, like VMware vCloud and Citrix Cloud Center, in order to compete effectively, but the lack of management and interoperability standards will make it difficult, if not impossible, to fluidly move between the different platforms. Major cloud computing outages and/or security breaches will further spook the enterprise except in niche areas, such as those currently being served by SaaS vendors.

Prediction #3 - On enterprise IT: Organizations will adopt a private cloud architecture for internal IT operations, but will be much more wary about moving applications onto external clouds. There are too many questions around security, privacy, control, compatibility, and vendor lock-in. Virtualization will be the key building block of private enterprise cloud architectures, and "cloud storage" will start to see greater attention and coverage.

Prediction #4 - On server hardware: Both Intel and AMD will continue to push more and more virtualization support features into the hardware. One or both of them may even go so far as to introduce their own hypervisor, or perhaps license a small hypervisor to be embedded deeply in their chipsets. Eight core CPUs will be introduced. PCI Express-based I/O virtualization via MR-IOV will begin to see greater adoption.


Industry Leaders Discuss the Future of Cloud Computing - Click Here To Enjoy SYS-CON's Cloud-Specific Predictions Round-up

 

More Stories By Jeremy Geelan

Jeremy Geelan is Chairman & CEO of the 21st Century Internet Group, Inc. and an Executive Academy Member of the International Academy of Digital Arts & Sciences. Formerly he was President & COO at Cloud Expo, Inc. and Conference Chair of the worldwide Cloud Expo series. He appears regularly at conferences and trade shows, speaking to technology audiences across six continents. You can follow him on twitter: @jg21.

Comments (0)

Share your thoughts on this story.

Add your comment
You must be signed in to add a comment. Sign-in | Register

In accordance with our Comment Policy, we encourage comments that are on topic, relevant and to-the-point. We will remove comments that include profanity, personal attacks, racial slurs, threats of violence, or other inappropriate material that violates our Terms and Conditions, and will block users who make repeated violations. We ask all readers to expect diversity of opinion and to treat one another with dignity and respect.


@CloudExpo Stories
SYS-CON Media announced today that CloudBees, the Jenkins Enterprise company, has launched ad campaigns on SYS-CON's DevOps Journal. CloudBees' campaigns focus on the business value of Continuous Delivery and how it has been recognized as a game changer for IT and is now a top priority for organizations, and the best ways to optimize Jenkins to ensure your continuous integration environment is optimally configured.
The 4th International Internet of @ThingsExpo, co-located with the 17th International Cloud Expo - to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA - announces that its Call for Papers is open. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the biggest idea since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than
SYS-CON Events announced today that ProfitBricks, the provider of painless cloud infrastructure, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. ProfitBricks is the IaaS provider that offers a painless cloud experience for all IT users, with no learning curve. ProfitBricks boasts flexible cloud servers and networking, an integrated Data Center Designer tool for visual control over the...
DevOps is about increasing efficiency, but nothing is more inefficient than building the same application twice. However, this is a routine occurrence with enterprise applications that need both a rich desktop web interface and strong mobile support. With recent technological advances from Isomorphic Software and others, it is now feasible to create a rich desktop and tuned mobile experience with a single codebase, without compromising performance or usability.
The most often asked question post-DevOps introduction is: “How do I get started?” There’s plenty of information on why DevOps is valid and important, but many managers still struggle with simple basics for how to initiate a DevOps program in their business. They struggle with issues related to current organizational inertia, the lack of experience on Continuous Integration/Delivery, understanding where DevOps will affect revenue and budget, etc. In their session at DevOps Summit, JP Morgenthal...
"We provide a web application framework for building really sophisticated web applications that run on a browser without any installation need so we get used for biotech, defense, and banking applications," noted Charles Kendrick, CTO and Chief Architect at Isomorphic Software, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @DevOpsSummit (http://DevOpsSummit.SYS-CON.com), held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York
"The idea of polyglot persistence is you have to apply the right database for the job - you always have to have many different databases in play. We offer that whole system as a service," explained Raj Singh, Developer Advocate for IBM Cloud Data Services, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 16th Cloud Expo, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Simone Brunozzi, VP and Chief Technologist of Cloud Services at VMware, reviewed the changes that the cloud computing industry has gone through over the last five years and shared insights into what the next five will bring. He also chronicled the challenges enterprise companies are facing as they move to the public cloud. He delved into the "Hybrid Cloud" space and explained why every CIO should consider ‘hybrid cloud' as part of their future strategy to achie...
"Plutora provides release and testing environment capabilities to the enterprise," explained Dalibor Siroky, Director and Co-founder of Plutora, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @DevOpsSummit, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
DevOps tends to focus on the relationship between Dev and Ops, putting an emphasis on the ops and application infrastructure. But that’s changing with microservices architectures. In her session at DevOps Summit, Lori MacVittie, Evangelist for F5 Networks, will focus on how microservices are changing the underlying architectures needed to scale, secure and deliver applications based on highly distributed (micro) services and why that means an expansion into “the network” for DevOps.
SYS-CON Events announced today that WHOA.com, an ISO 27001 Certified secure cloud computing company, participated as “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo® New York, which took place June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. WHOA.com is a leader in next-generation, ISO 27001 Certified secure cloud solutions. WHOA.com offers a comprehensive portfolio of best-in-class cloud services for business including Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Secure Cloud Desk...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Intelligent Systems Services will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Established in 1994, Intelligent Systems Services Inc. is located near Washington, DC, with representatives and partners nationwide. ISS’s well-established track record is based on the continuous pursuit of excellence in designing, implementing and supporting nationwide clients’ ...
The Internet of Things is not only adding billions of sensors and billions of terabytes to the Internet. It is also forcing a fundamental change in the way we envision Information Technology. For the first time, more data is being created by devices at the edge of the Internet rather than from centralized systems. What does this mean for today's IT professional? In this Power Panel at @ThingsExpo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists addressed this very serious issue of pro...
With major technology companies and startups seriously embracing IoT strategies, now is the perfect time to attend @ThingsExpo in Silicon Valley. Learn what is going on, contribute to the discussions, and ensure that your enterprise is as "IoT-Ready" as it can be! Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place Nov 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 17th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading in...
SYS-CON Events announced today that MangoApps will exhibit at SYS-CON's 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. MangoApps provides private all-in-one social intranets allowing workers to securely collaborate from anywhere in the world and from any device. Social, mobile, and easy to use. MangoApps has been named a "Market Leader" by Ovum Research and a "Cool Vendor" by Gartner. 20,000+ business custome...
IT data is typically silo'd by the various tools in place. Unifying all the log, metric and event data in one analytics platform stops finger pointing and provides the end-to-end correlation. Logs, metrics and custom event data can be joined to tell the holistic story of your software and operations. For example, users can correlate code deploys to system performance to application error codes. In his session at DevOps Summit, Michael Demmer, VP of Engineering at Jut, will discuss how this can...
SYS-CON Events announced today that kintone has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. kintone promotes cloud-based workgroup productivity, transparency and profitability with a seamless collaboration space, build your own business application (BYOA) platform, and workflow automation system.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Harbinger Systems will exhibit at SYS-CON's 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Harbinger Systems is a global company providing software technology services. Since 1990, Harbinger has developed a strong customer base worldwide. Its customers include software product companies ranging from hi-tech start-ups in Silicon Valley to leading product companies in the US a...
The cloud has transformed how we think about software quality. Instead of preventing failures, we must focus on automatic recovery from failure. In other words, resilience trumps traditional quality measures. Continuous delivery models further squeeze traditional notions of quality. Remember the venerable project management Iron Triangle? Among time, scope, and cost, you can only fix two or quality will suffer. Only in today's DevOps world, continuous testing, integration, and deployment upend...
Live Webinar with 451 Research Analyst Peter Christy. Join us on Wednesday July 22, 2015, at 10 am PT / 1 pm ET In a world where users are on the Internet and the applications are in the cloud, how do you maintain your historic SLA with your users? Peter Christy, Research Director, Networks at 451 Research, will discuss this new network paradigm, one in which there is no LAN and no WAN, and discuss what users and network administrators gain and give up when migrating to the agile world of clo...